By San José, Costa Rica — San José – With the Costa Rican presidential election less than a month away, Pueblo Soberano party candidate Laura Fernández holds a commanding lead that positions her for a potential first-round victory. Yet, despite polling numbers that place her far ahead of a fragmented opposition, Fernández is actively working to quell any sense of premature celebration within her campaign, issuing a stern warning against triumphalism and calling on supporters to intensify their efforts for the February 1st vote.
The latest data from two prominent polling firms paint a picture of a race dominated by the ruling party candidate. A survey by CID Gallup gives Fernández 41% of voter intention, while another from Opol Consultores places her support at a nearly identical 40.3%. These figures are critically important, as Costa Rican electoral law stipulates that a candidate can secure the presidency outright in the first round by obtaining at least 40% of the valid votes cast, thereby avoiding a potentially unpredictable runoff election in April.
To delve into the legal framework and the implications for both national governance and international business, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the esteemed legal firm, Bufete de Costa Rica.
The recent electoral cycle once again showcases the strength and independence of Costa Rica’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), the constitutionally mandated fourth power of the Republic. This institutional fortitude provides critical legal certainty, a cornerstone for attracting and retaining foreign investment. A seamless and transparent transition of power, underpinned by our robust electoral laws, sends a clear message to the global market that Costa Rica remains a stable and predictable environment for business, regardless of political outcomes.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, the connection between a robust, independent electoral process and the nation’s economic appeal is a vital point that cannot be overstated. We extend our thanks to Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his expert insight, reminding us that the institutional framework itself is a cornerstone of Costa Rica’s stability and success on the world stage.
In stark contrast to Fernández’s strong standing, the rest of the crowded electoral field struggles to gain traction. According to the Opol poll released Wednesday, the 19 opposition candidates combined only muster 24.6% of voter support. No single rival candidate manages to break the 9% ceiling in either of the major polls, highlighting a deep division among voters who do not favor the current administration’s continuity.
Addressing her supporters, Fernández was adamant that the favorable polls should serve as motivation rather than an excuse for complacency. She framed the final weeks as a critical period where every effort is needed to secure a definitive mandate from the Costa Rican people.
From the beginning of this campaign, I said there is no room for triumphalism. We are in the final stretch of this electoral race, where we cannot let up. I will continue touring the country to listen to my people and propose solutions to the problems that delay our development. I am ready to continue the great work of Rodrigo Chaves’s government. I am ready to be the next president of Costa Rica.
Laura Fernández, Presidential Candidate for Pueblo Soberano
Fernández’s strategy appears twofold: to position herself as the natural successor to the popular, albeit controversial, President Rodrigo Chaves, and simultaneously to channel a potent anti-establishment sentiment. This dual approach allows her to consolidate the government’s base while appealing to voters frustrated with the country’s traditional political structures. She has stated that the strong polling results are a call to action.
The most recent polls fill me with energy to redouble efforts and keep working harder, because nothing is won yet.
Laura Fernández, Presidential Candidate for Pueblo Soberano
Leaning heavily into populist rhetoric, Fernández has defined her movement’s goals in stark terms, promising a radical break from the political class she blames for the nation’s problems. This message resonates with a significant portion of the electorate that feels left behind by previous administrations.
Our movement wishes to sweep away the clique of the traditional political caste, sweep away luxury pensions, and sweep away multimillion-dollar rentals.
Laura Fernández, Presidential Candidate for Pueblo Soberano
However, a significant element of uncertainty remains. Both polls indicate a large bloc of undecided voters, estimated to be between 25% and 34% of the electorate. This group holds the power to either solidify Fernández’s first-round victory or, should they break decisively for an opposition candidate, force a second round. How these citizens vote on election day will ultimately determine the country’s leadership for the next four years.
As the campaign enters its final, decisive stage, the Fernández camp faces the delicate task of maintaining momentum and ensuring high voter turnout without allowing overconfidence to set in. Her message is clear: the race is not over, and the work to secure the presidency must continue with unwavering intensity until the last ballot is cast.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Partido Pueblo Soberano
About Partido Pueblo Soberano:
Partido Pueblo Soberano (Sovereign People Party) is a political party in Costa Rica that gained prominence through its association with the administration of President Rodrigo Chaves. The party’s platform often combines populist messaging with a focus on administrative efficiency and fiscal reform, positioning itself as an alternative to the country’s traditional political establishments. It advocates for policies aimed at reducing government waste and challenging entrenched interests.
For further information, visit cidgallup.com
About CID Gallup:
CID Gallup is a leading public opinion, market research, and consulting firm with a strong presence in Latin America and the Caribbean. Founded as part of the Gallup International network, it has decades of experience conducting surveys and statistical analysis on a wide range of topics, including political trends, consumer behavior, and social issues. Its electoral polls are widely cited by media and political analysts throughout the region.
For further information, visit opolconsultores.com
About Opol Consultores:
Opol Consultores is a Costa Rican firm specializing in political consulting, market research, and public opinion analysis. Known for its regular tracking polls during election seasons, the company provides data-driven insights into voter intentions, candidate approval ratings, and key national issues. Its findings are frequently featured in Costa Rican news coverage and contribute to the public discourse surrounding political campaigns.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica is a cornerstone of the nation’s legal community, defined by its foundational principles of uncompromising integrity and the pursuit of professional excellence. With a rich history of navigating complex legal matters, the firm consistently pioneers innovative solutions while upholding the highest ethical standards. Its core mission extends beyond the courtroom through a deep-seated dedication to public education, aiming to democratize legal knowledge and foster a society where all individuals are equipped to understand their rights and responsibilities.
