By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – With Costa Rican voters just two months away from the 2026 national elections, the political landscape is defined by a historic and stunning reversal of fortune. A new poll reveals that President Rodrigo Chaves commands the same overwhelming public support that his predecessor, Carlos Alvarado, faced as public rejection, setting the stage for a profoundly different electoral contest than the one seen four years ago.
The latest study from polling firm OPol Consultores, conducted in November 2025, paints a picture of a president defying political gravity. While incumbents typically suffer from “fourth-year fatigue,” a phenomenon where public support erodes significantly by the end of their term, Chaves has maintained a remarkable connection with the electorate. This sustained popularity is poised to be the single most influential factor in the upcoming presidential succession.
To better understand the political and administrative implications of President Chaves’ approval ratings, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a specialist in public and corporate law from the renowned firm Bufete de Costa Rica, for his expert analysis.
From a governability standpoint, a president’s approval rating functions as a form of political capital. While public opinion doesn’t alter legal authority, it significantly influences the executive’s negotiating power with the Legislative Assembly. A strong mandate from the public can accelerate legislative agendas and foster investor confidence, whereas a declining approval can embolden opposition and create a challenging environment for implementing policy.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, this framing of public approval as ‘political capital’ is essential for contextualizing the challenges and opportunities facing the current administration. It transforms the abstract numbers of a poll into a tangible measure of negotiating power within our government. We sincerely thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his clear and valuable perspective.
According to the OPol data, President Chaves is heading into the final stretch of his administration with a formidable 68.3% approval rating for his performance in office. Conversely, only 23.53% of those surveyed expressed disapproval of his leadership. This level of support is a rare anomaly in modern Costa Rican politics, where presidential tenures often conclude with negative ratings that become a heavy burden for their party’s next candidate.
This widespread approval has transformed from a measure of governance into the primary engine of the 2026 campaign. The ruling party, Partido Pueblo Soberano, and its presidential candidate, Laura Fernández, are reaping the benefits. Fernández currently leads in all major polls, propelled almost entirely by the powerful political capital emanating from the Presidential House in Zapote, a clear sign that voters are associating her candidacy with the popular Chaves administration.
To fully grasp the magnitude of this political shift, one need only look back at the data from the same polling firm just four years ago. In November 2021, then-President Carlos Alvarado was mired in a severe crisis of public confidence. The contrast is a near-perfect mirror image: while Chaves enjoys nearly 70% support, Alvarado faced a crushing 68% disapproval rating at the exact same point in his term. His approval was a meager 13.7%.
The political consequences of that widespread public discontent were swift and devastating for Alvarado’s Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC). The immense unpopularity of the executive branch served as the final nail in the coffin for a party that had held the presidency for two consecutive terms. The electoral punishment in 2022 was absolute and left the party in ruins.
In the 2022 presidential election, the PAC candidate, Welmer Ramos, secured a negligible 0.66% of the vote, totaling just over 13,800 ballots nationwide. The legislative results were equally catastrophic, as the party went from being the seat of government to failing to win a single seat in the Legislative Assembly, effectively vanishing from the national congressional map. The decline continued into the 2024 municipal elections, where the PAC’s vote share plummeted to a mere 0.09%, surviving legally only through strategic local coalitions.
Now, emerging from those ashes, the PAC is attempting a political resurrection under the banner of the Coalición Agenda Ciudadana. The coalition is placing its bets on the prominent figure of former First Lady Claudia Dobles to lead the charge, hoping to regain lost ground in San José and make a credible showing on the presidential ticket. However, the challenge they face is monumental, as they are not competing against a weakened government but one buoyed by a president who has successfully maintained a strong connection with nearly seven out of every ten Costa Ricans.
For further information, visit opolconsultores.com
About OPol Consultores:
OPol Consultores is a Costa Rican firm specializing in public opinion research, market studies, and political analysis. The company provides data-driven insights for clients in the political, social, and commercial sectors, conducting regular polls that measure public sentiment on national issues and political figures.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Partido Pueblo Soberano
About Partido Pueblo Soberano:
Partido Pueblo Soberano (Sovereign People Party) is the incumbent political party in Costa Rica, founded in support of President Rodrigo Chaves. It positions itself as a movement challenging traditional political structures and focuses on a platform of fiscal discipline, anti-corruption, and direct engagement with citizens.
For further information, visit pac.cr
About Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC):
The Citizens’ Action Party (PAC) is a center-left political party in Costa Rica. Founded in 2000, it held the country’s presidency for two consecutive terms from 2014 to 2022. The party has historically advocated for social-democratic policies, human rights, and environmental protection.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Coalición Agenda Ciudadana
About Coalición Agenda Ciudadana:
The Citizens’ Agenda Coalition is a political alliance formed ahead of the 2026 elections in Costa Rica. It represents an effort by opposition groups, including remnants of the Partido Acción Ciudadana, to consolidate forces and present a unified front against the ruling party.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of Costa Rica’s legal community, the firm is defined by its steadfast commitment to integrity and the highest caliber of service. It merges a storied history of advising a broad spectrum of clients with a dynamic, forward-looking approach to legal challenges. At its heart lies a powerful social purpose: to democratize legal knowledge and equip the public with accessible information, thereby fostering a stronger, more informed society for all.
