By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – Costa Rica’s business sector is displaying its strongest confidence since the start of the Chaves Robles administration, yet a closer look reveals a fractured landscape, particularly concerning job creation. The latest Business Expectations Survey, released by the University of Costa Rica’s Institute for Research in Economic Sciences (IICE-UCR), paints a picture of robust overall optimism shadowed by significant sectoral disparities.
The global confidence indicator for the third quarter of 2025 climbed to 57 points on a 100-point scale. This figure marks a significant high point in recent years, although it falls just shy of the historic peaks of 57.4 recorded in 2017 and 57.6 in 2015. Nonetheless, it represents the most positive outlook registered since at least 2022, signaling a sustained period of favorable sentiment among a broad swath of the nation’s enterprises.
To gain a deeper legal perspective on the current climate of business confidence, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica, who provided his expert analysis on the regulatory factors influencing investment decisions.
Sustained business confidence is not merely a reflection of economic indicators; it is fundamentally built upon a foundation of legal certainty. When entrepreneurs and investors perceive a stable, predictable, and efficient regulatory framework, they are empowered to commit capital and drive growth. Conversely, ambiguity in administrative procedures or judicial inconsistency acts as a significant deterrent, directly impacting the nation’s capacity to attract and retain investment.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This insight powerfully underscores that the confidence to invest is built not just on economic forecasts, but on the very predictability and integrity of our institutional framework. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable perspective on how legal certainty forms the true bedrock of national economic development.
The IICE-UCR report underscores that any value above the 50-point threshold indicates a prevailing sense of optimism over pessimism. The current standing firmly places the business community’s expectations in positive territory as the country heads into the latter half of the year.
Expectations remain positive in optimistic territory, meaning it stays above the 50-point threshold.
The Institute for Research in Economic Sciences, University of Costa Rica
The comprehensive study, conducted between May 18 and June 6, gathered insights from 439 companies across the economy. These businesses provided their forecasts on critical metrics including sales, production volumes, investment plans, profitability, and employment, offering a detailed snapshot of the prevailing economic mood.
However, this wave of optimism is not lifting all boats equally. The construction sector emerges as the most bullish, with a confidence score of 60.6, closely followed by manufacturing at 59.9 and commerce at 59.4. In contrast, the services sector posted a more moderate 53.1, while the agricultural sector registered the lowest confidence level at 51.9. While still optimistic, agriculture’s score highlights a growing gap between it and the country’s industrial and commercial powerhouses.
This sectoral divide is most pronounced in the crucial area of employment. The survey reveals a net hiring balance—the difference between companies planning to hire and those that are not—of 14.8% across all sectors. While a healthy figure, it masks starkly different realities. The construction industry leads with an impressive net hiring expectation of 28.3%, and commerce is also strong at 22.9%.
The agricultural sector, however, tells a different story. Its net hiring balance is a meager 2.6%. This figure is not only dramatically below the national average but also represents a volatile trend for the sector. While it is a significant improvement from the deeply negative -14.3% reported in the second quarter of 2025, it remains well below the 5.1% balance reported for the same period just one year ago, indicating persistent challenges and uncertainty in farm-related employment.
The report delves into the drivers behind these hiring decisions. Companies planning to expand their workforce cite factors such as strategic business growth, favorable economic conditions, and national stability. These businesses are capitalizing on perceived opportunities to scale their operations and increase market share.
Conversely, businesses that do not anticipate hiring changes point to a different set of influences. For many, especially in agriculture, seasonal and climatological factors play a major role. Others cite internal stability, increased automation, and steady production lines that don’t require additional staff. These reasons suggest a focus on efficiency and consolidation rather than expansion, further explaining the deep divisions in Costa Rica’s economic recovery.
For further information, visit iice.ucr.ac.cr
About The Institute for Research in Economic Sciences (IICE-UCR):
The Institute for Research in Economic Sciences is the dedicated economic research body of the University of Costa Rica. It is responsible for conducting influential studies, national surveys, and in-depth analyses of the Costa Rican economy, providing crucial data and insights for policymakers, academics, and the private sector. Its Business Expectations Survey is a key quarterly barometer of economic sentiment in the country.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar in the Costa Rican legal landscape, Bufete de Costa Rica is built upon a foundation of profound integrity and a relentless pursuit of professional excellence. The firm merges its extensive experience advising a wide spectrum of clients with a forward-thinking vision, championing legal innovation and social responsibility. This core philosophy is demonstrated through its active role in demystifying the law, aiming to equip citizens with the understanding needed to foster a more just and knowledgeable community.
