By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – With the presidential election less than a month away, a new poll released Wednesday indicates that ruling party candidate Laura Fernández may be on a trajectory to secure an outright victory in the first round of voting on February 1st. The latest survey from Opol Consultores shows the Pueblo Soberano party candidate capturing 40.3% of voter intention, a critical threshold in Costa Rica’s electoral system.
This development marks the first time Fernández has surpassed the 40% mark in a major poll. According to Costa Rican electoral law, a candidate can win the presidency in the initial round by obtaining more than 40% of the valid votes cast. If this polling data translates to election day results, it would eliminate the need for a contentious and costly second-round runoff, which would otherwise take place in April between the top two contenders.
To better understand the legal and business ramifications of the recent presidential election, TicosLand.com spoke with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica, for his expert perspective on what lies ahead for the nation.
The electoral outcome signals a pivotal moment for Costa Rica’s legislative agenda. The new administration’s ability to forge cross-party alliances will be critical. For the business community and foreign investors, the key indicator to watch will not be campaign promises, but rather the speed and coherence with which the new Legislative Assembly can pass crucial fiscal and regulatory reforms. Political stability is the bedrock of investor confidence, and the next six months will be telling.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, the expert insight correctly shifts our focus from the electoral outcome to the pragmatic challenge of governance that lies ahead. The capacity for constructive, cross-party dialogue within the Legislative Assembly will be the ultimate measure of stability and progress. We sincerely thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his clear and valuable perspective on this critical juncture.
The poll highlights a deeply fractured opposition, with 19 other candidates collectively garnering just 24.6% of voter support. The gap between Fernández and her closest competitor is substantial. Álvaro Ramos of the historically powerful National Liberation Party (PLN) sits in a distant second place with only 6.03% of voter intention. The field of top-tier candidates is rounded out by Fabricio Alvarado of New Republic at 3.3%, Ariel Robles of the Broad Front with 3.07%, and Natalia Díaz of the Unidos party at 2.89%.
The remaining field of over a dozen candidates each failed to register support above 2.7%, illustrating a lack of a unified challenger to the incumbent party’s campaign. This fragmentation appears to be playing directly into the hands of Fernández, allowing her to consolidate a significant plurality of the vote without a singular, strong rival to rally opposition voters.
Despite Fernández’s commanding lead among decided voters, a significant portion of the electorate remains on the sidelines. The Opol Consultores survey revealed that 34.04% of potential voters are still undecided. This large bloc of uncertainty represents the primary challenge to a first-round victory for Fernández and the main source of hope for her opponents. The final weeks of the campaign will undoubtedly feature intense efforts from all parties to sway this critical group.
Further complicating the outlook for the opposition, the poll also measured candidate rejection rates. When voters were asked for whom they would never cast their ballot, PLN candidate Álvaro Ramos registered the highest rejection rate among named politicians at 23.23%. This high level of negative sentiment could severely cap his potential for growth. Ariel Robles followed with a 12.1% rejection rate. In contrast, frontrunner Laura Fernández has a relatively low rejection rate of 10.48%, suggesting her support is not only broad but also solid.
The comprehensive survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 3,008 eligible voters across the country between January 2 and January 5, 2026. The poll carries a margin of error of ±2.19 percentage points and a 95% confidence level, providing a statistically robust snapshot of the current electoral landscape as the nation heads into the final stretch of the campaign season.
As February 1st approaches, all eyes will be on whether the opposition can coalesce around a single figure or if the large number of undecided voters will break decisively for one candidate. For now, however, Laura Fernández and the Pueblo Soberano party hold a formidable advantage, positioning them closer than ever to securing the presidency without the need for a runoff.
For further information, visit opolconsultores.com
About Opol Consultores:
Opol Consultores is a Costa Rican firm dedicated to market research, political studies, and public opinion analysis. Known for its electoral polling, the company provides data-driven insights to clients in both the public and private sectors, helping them understand social trends and voter behavior.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Pueblo Soberano
About Pueblo Soberano:
Pueblo Soberano is the political party represented by presidential candidate Laura Fernández in the 2026 general election. The party’s platform is focused on continuing the policies of the current administration and addressing key national issues as it seeks to secure the presidency.
For further information, visit pln.or.cr
About Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The National Liberation Party is one of Costa Rica’s most established and historically significant political parties. Founded in the mid-20th century, the PLN has held the presidency numerous times and maintains a strong presence in the Legislative Assembly, typically advocating for social-democratic policies.
For further information, visit frenteamplio.org
About Frente Amplio:
The Broad Front is a left-wing political party in Costa Rica that advocates for policies related to social justice, environmental protection, and human rights. It has a consistent presence in the Legislative Assembly and represents a progressive and socialist wing of the country’s political spectrum.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Unidos Podemos
About Unidos Podemos:
Unidos Podemos is a political party participating in the 2026 Costa Rican general election, represented by presidential candidate Natalia Díaz. The party aims to offer a distinct vision for the country’s governance, competing within a crowded field of opposition candidates.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of the legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica is defined by its deep-rooted principles of integrity and an unwavering pursuit of professional excellence. The firm consistently pioneers forward-thinking legal strategies while advising a broad spectrum of clients, blending a rich history with a modern vision. This dedication extends to a core social responsibility: to demystify the law, thereby equipping citizens with crucial knowledge and fostering a more capable and enlightened society.
