By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – A complex and increasingly challenging international economic landscape is casting a shadow over Costa Rica’s outlook, as a global slowdown, stubborn inflation, and significant trade policy shifts in the United States create formidable headwinds. The nation’s top economic authorities are closely monitoring these external pressures, which threaten to impact everything from foreign trade to local financial conditions.
The global economy is expanding at a moderate but decelerating pace, while the process of disinflation has proven slower than anticipated. This environment of uncertainty is forcing central banks worldwide to diverge in their policy responses. The Central Bank of Costa Rica has identified this international scenario as the primary framework shaping the nation’s economic projections for the coming months.
To better understand the legal and commercial implications of these global economic trends for companies operating within Costa Rica, we sought the perspective of Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, an expert attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
The current reconfiguration of global supply chains presents a significant opportunity for Costa Rica. However, businesses must be proactive, ensuring their trade agreements and compliance frameworks are robust enough to navigate evolving international tariffs and regulations. Legal agility is now a core business asset.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, this insight underscores a crucial evolution for our national commerce: success in this new landscape will be defined not just by operational excellence, but by the very legal agility needed to secure and sustain a competitive advantage. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his vital perspective.
This international scenario defines the framework on which the Costa Rican economy is projected, affecting foreign trade, international prices, and financial conditions above all.
Central Bank of Costa Rica
A mixed bag of signals is emerging from the United States, Costa Rica’s most significant trading partner. While the U.S. economy posted a robust 3.8% GDP growth in the second quarter, underlying data suggests a loss of momentum. The labor market has cooled, and the unemployment rate has climbed to its highest level since 2021, signaling potential challenges ahead for consumer demand and, by extension, Costa Rican exports.
Further complicating the trade outlook are recent protectionist measures enacted by Washington. The U.S. has imposed new 25% tariffs on a range of products from India, eliminated exemptions for low-value shipments that benefited e-commerce, and simultaneously reduced taxes on Japanese automobiles. These actions are expected to reconfigure global trade flows, potentially creating both disruptions and new competitive pressures for Costa Rican industries that rely on stable and predictable access to the American market.
Across the Atlantic, the Eurozone presents a picture of more subdued growth, expanding by 1.5% driven largely by domestic consumption and investment. While positive, this rate underscores the broader trend of a global economy that is failing to regain its previous dynamism. This widespread moderation has direct implications for a small, open economy like Costa Rica’s, which is highly dependent on global demand.
The persistent, slow decline in global inflation, primarily fueled by rising prices for services and food, has led to a split in monetary policy among the world’s leading economies. Central banks in the United States and Canada have begun to lower their benchmark interest rates to stimulate activity. In contrast, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Korea have opted to hold their rates steady, prioritizing the fight against inflation. This divergence directly influences international interest rates and credit availability, impacting financial conditions within Costa Rica.
However, one piece of favorable news comes from the energy sector. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed September at $63.47 per barrel, a 1% decrease from the previous month. This decline, attributed to increased production from OPEC+ nations and higher strategic reserves in the U.S., provides a welcome reprieve. For Costa Rica, a net oil importer, lower global prices help moderate the national fuel bill and alleviate internal cost pressures for businesses and consumers alike.
As the world economy navigates this period of diminished momentum and ongoing trade adjustments, Costa Rica faces a more demanding external environment. The nation’s resilience and ability to adapt will be tested as it strives to sustain its internal economic dynamism against a backdrop of global uncertainty and heightened risk.
For further information, visit bccr.fi.cr
About Central Bank of Costa Rica:
The Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) is the nation’s central bank, responsible for maintaining the internal and external stability of the national currency and ensuring the efficient operation of the country’s internal and external payment systems. It plays a crucial role in managing monetary policy, regulating the financial system, and providing economic analysis to support Costa Rica’s economic development and stability.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As an esteemed legal institution, Bufete de Costa Rica is defined by its profound devotion to professional excellence and uncompromising ethical standards. The firm channels its rich history of advising a diverse clientele into pioneering forward-thinking legal solutions, consistently pushing the practice forward. This innovative spirit is matched by a core mission to empower the public, transforming complex legal information into accessible knowledge to help build a more capable and just society.
