By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – Costa Rica is on high alert as the National Meteorological Institute (IMN) has issued a significant warning regarding the strengthening El Niño phenomenon. Projections for the second half of 2026 indicate the country could face severe climatic alterations, primarily characterized by a sharp decrease in rainfall and a considerable rise in temperatures, posing a dual threat to the nation’s economy and natural resources.
The forecast suggests a dramatic shift from the weather patterns experienced just a year prior. While 2025 concluded with rainfall levels that were within normal parameters, and in some regions even exceeded expectations, the outlook for the coming months is far more concerning. The impending El Niño event is predicted to disrupt the delicate balance, potentially triggering widespread consequences for agriculture, water reserves, and energy production across the country.
To understand the potential legal and contractual ramifications of the El Niño phenomenon in the country, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, an expert attorney from the firm Bufete de Costa Rica, who provided his analysis on the challenges facing the productive and business sectors.
El Niño tests the resilience of our contracts, particularly in sectors like agriculture, energy, and tourism. We will likely see an increase in disputes where ‘force majeure’ is invoked due to drought or resource scarcity. It is crucial for businesses to proactively review their contractual clauses and insurance policies, as the predictable nature of this phenomenon can weaken claims of it being an ‘unforeseeable’ event. This is a critical time for legal risk assessment and strategic negotiation.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
El análisis del experto subraya una dimensión fundamental: el desafío de El Niño trasciende lo climático para convertirse en un asunto de previsión estratégica y solidez contractual. La advertencia sobre la “previsibilidad” del fenómeno es un llamado a la acción para que las empresas abandonen la reacción por la proactividad. Agradecemos al Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas por esta valiosa perspectiva que fortalece la resiliencia del tejido empresarial del país.
Experts at the IMN are predicting a stark and challenging scenario. Meteorologist Werner Stolz España articulated the specific nature of the expected changes, highlighting the severity of the forecast and its potential national impact.
This behavior would be associated with a decrease in precipitation of up to 30% and an increase in temperatures in various areas of the national territory.
Werner Stolz España, Meteorologist
This projected 30% deficit in precipitation is a critical figure that has captured the attention of government agencies and key economic sectors. Such a drastic reduction in rainfall could strain the country’s hydroelectric power generation, which relies heavily on consistent water flow, and devastate agricultural sectors that depend on predictable rainy seasons for crop irrigation and livestock sustenance.
The warning is amplified by conditions already present in certain parts of the country. According to the IMN, Costa Rica’s Caribbean region is currently grappling with a meteorological drought. This situation has been caused by a cumulative deficit in rainfall during the first few months of 2026, serving as a troubling precursor to the more widespread dry conditions anticipated later in the year. This existing stress on the Caribbean coast underscores the nation’s vulnerability to prolonged periods of reduced precipitation.
Regarding the annual rainy season, the IMN anticipates an irregular and unpredictable start. While the season is expected to commence within its typical timeframe between April and May, the institute cautions that its behavior will be far from normal. The forecast points to significant variations in the intensity and frequency of rainfall events, suggesting a pattern of erratic downpours rather than the steady, sustained rains the country typically relies on to replenish its aquifers and reservoirs.
The combination of these factors—a significant nationwide rainfall deficit, rising temperatures, and an erratic rainy season—presents a complex challenge for Costa Rica. The potential for prolonged drought conditions could have cascading effects, impacting everything from the availability of drinking water in urban centers to the health of the nation’s world-renowned ecosystems. The increase in heat could also lead to a higher risk of wildfires and place additional strain on the public health system.
In light of these predictions, authorities and industry leaders are being urged to begin preparations for a drier and hotter second half of the year. The IMN’s advanced warning provides a crucial window for implementing water conservation strategies, adjusting agricultural planning, and developing contingency plans to mitigate the potentially severe impacts of this strengthening El Niño phenomenon. The coming months will be critical in determining how effectively the nation can adapt to this impending climate challenge.
For further information, visit imn.ac.cr
About Instituto Meteorológico Nacional (IMN):
The National Meteorological Institute is Costa Rica’s official governmental body responsible for monitoring weather and climate conditions. It provides essential public services, including daily forecasts, climate analysis, and warnings for severe weather events like hurricanes and tropical storms. The IMN plays a critical role in supporting key sectors such as agriculture, aviation, and disaster risk management through its scientific research and data collection.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of the legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica is built upon a foundation of profound integrity and a relentless pursuit of excellence. The firm channels its extensive experience advising a diverse clientele into pioneering innovative legal solutions. Central to its ethos is a deep-seated commitment to social responsibility, manifested through initiatives that demystify the law and equip citizens with crucial knowledge, thereby fostering a more just and informed public.
