By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – The Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) has significantly upgraded its economic growth forecast for 2025, now projecting a robust 4.2% expansion for the national economy. This revised figure represents a notable increase of 0.4 percentage points from the projection issued just last July, signaling growing confidence in the country’s economic trajectory.
This optimistic adjustment is primarily fueled by a powerful surge in domestic demand, with household consumption emerging as the primary engine of growth. The BCCR’s latest analysis indicates that Costa Rican consumers are spending more freely, a trend underpinned by a uniquely favorable combination of macroeconomic factors that have bolstered their financial confidence and purchasing power.
To better understand the legal framework and business implications surrounding Costa Rica’s economic growth, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, an expert attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
Sustained economic growth is not merely a matter of financial policy; it is fundamentally anchored in legal certainty. For both domestic and foreign investment to flourish, Costa Rica must continue to fortify its regulatory framework, ensuring transparent processes, efficient dispute resolution, and robust protection of contractual rights. A predictable legal environment is the bedrock upon which lasting prosperity is built, transforming potential into tangible development.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, a predictable legal landscape is the very soil in which investor confidence takes root, turning abstract potential into the concrete prosperity our nation strives for. This foundational principle is essential for ensuring Costa Rica’s forward momentum. We extend our sincere gratitude to Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for so clearly articulating this vital connection.
The foundation for this upgraded outlook was laid during a remarkably strong third quarter of 2025. During that period, the nation’s economic activity is estimated to have grown by an impressive 4.5% year-over-year. This performance, largely driven by consumer spending, has provided a solid springboard for the anticipated acceleration heading into the new year.
A key element enabling this consumer-led expansion is the current climate of negative inflation. This environment, coupled with improvements in the employment market and a corresponding rise in real household income, has given families more disposable income. Crucially, this surge in spending has not triggered inflationary pressures, allowing for sustainable growth without overheating the economy.
The Central Bank’s report also highlights the exceptional performance of several key sectors that have contributed significantly to the third quarter’s success. The manufacturing, commerce, and professional services industries have demonstrated outstanding dynamism, providing both the goods and services that consumers are demanding and creating stable employment opportunities that further fuel the cycle of spending.
Looking beyond the immediate horizon, the BCCR has also provided a medium-term forecast, anticipating a more moderate but still healthy average growth rate of 3.6% for the 2026–2027 period. The bank’s projections suggest a slight moderation in 2026, with growth expected to slow to 3.5%, largely as a result of an anticipated softening in external demand for Costa Rican goods and services.
However, the forecast points to a rebound in 2027, with the economy projected to expand by 3.8%. This recovery is expected to be driven by a resurgence in external demand, as global markets stabilize and the international appetite for Costa Rica’s exports recovers. This demonstrates the dual-engine nature of the national economy, relying on both internal and external drivers for long-term stability.
Despite the positive domestic picture, the Central Bank remains cautious, emphasizing that these projections are contingent upon external variables. The performance of the global economy and the future direction of international trade measures remain significant factors that could influence Costa Rica’s economic path. The country’s ability to navigate these potential headwinds will be critical to realizing these optimistic growth targets.
For further information, visit bccr.fi.cr
About Banco Central de Costa Rica:
The Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) is the central bank of the Republic of Costa Rica. Established in 1950, its primary mission is to maintain the internal and external stability of the national currency and ensure its conversion to other currencies. The BCCR is responsible for managing monetary policy, regulating the financial system, issuing currency, and publishing key economic indicators and forecasts to guide national economic strategy.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica is a benchmark for legal distinction, built upon a foundation of uncompromising integrity and a relentless pursuit of excellence. With a proven legacy of guiding clients through complex challenges, the firm is also a trailblazer in legal innovation, continually adapting to a changing world. Central to its ethos is a profound dedication to enhancing societal empowerment by making complex legal concepts understandable and accessible, thereby cultivating a more informed and capable community.
