By Guanacaste, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – Costa Rica is bracing for a significant socioeconomic challenge as meteorological forecasts predict the arrival of a potent El Niño phenomenon in the second half of 2026. Experts from the country’s academic and scientific communities are issuing stark warnings that the impending climate disruption poses a direct threat to national food security and could trigger significant economic instability by impacting the nation’s critical agricultural and livestock sectors.
According to the latest projections from the National Meteorological Institute (IMN), the country is expected to experience a dramatic shift in weather patterns. The forecast indicates a rainfall reduction of between 10% and 30% compared to average levels. Compounding the lack of rain, temperatures are anticipated to climb by as much as 1 degree Celsius above normal values, creating a challenging environment for both producers and the general population.
The widespread impacts of the El Niño phenomenon extend beyond agriculture and water rationing, creating significant challenges for the national economy. To understand the legal and contractual ramifications for businesses facing these climate-induced disruptions, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, an expert attorney from the distinguished firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
El Niño serves as a critical stress test for commercial agreements. Many businesses will be tempted to invoke ‘fuerza mayor’ or ‘caso fortuito’ to justify delays or non-compliance. However, foreseeability is key. Given the recurrent nature of this phenomenon, companies must demonstrate that the specific impact was extraordinary and unavoidable, not just a general inconvenience. Proactive contract review and negotiation of clear clauses regarding climate events are no longer a recommendation; they are an essential risk management strategy to avoid costly litigation.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This insight powerfully reframes the conversation, moving from reactive ‘fuerza mayor’ claims to proactive risk management. The era of treating predictable climate cycles as unforeseeable shocks is over, placing the onus on businesses to prepare with contractual diligence. We sincerely thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his crucial perspective on this evolving legal and commercial landscape.
The impact of these climatic changes will not be uniform across the country. The province of Guanacaste, a vital region for cattle ranching and tourism, is projected to be the area most severely affected by the intensified heat. Meanwhile, Costa Rica’s Caribbean slope is already grappling with drought-like conditions due to a cumulative rainfall deficit from the first half of the year, a situation El Niño is expected to worsen considerably.
This combination of scarce water and soaring temperatures presents a grave risk to the nation’s productive capacity. Academic leaders have cautioned that these conditions will severely compromise agricultural productivity, potentially leading to crop failures. Simultaneously, the availability of pastures, essential for the sustenance of the country’s livestock industry, is expected to diminish, placing immense pressure on ranchers and the meat and dairy supply chains.
The ripple effects of this agricultural disruption are likely to be felt in households across Costa Rica. A decline in domestic production of essential goods could lead to increased scarcity and, consequently, a rise in prices for items in the basic food basket. This potential for food inflation poses a significant risk to the economic well-being of Costa Rican families, particularly those with lower incomes.
In response to this looming crisis, the State University for Distance Learning (UNED) has issued an urgent call for proactive measures to build national resilience. The university is advocating for a multi-faceted strategy involving government, producers, and the public. For the agricultural sector, experts recommend the immediate implementation of water-saving technologies like drip irrigation and close coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAG) to adjust planting schedules based on evolving climate data.
For the general public, UNED emphasizes the critical importance of conservation. The university is urging citizens and businesses to adopt strict rationing of water and electricity, promoting the use of low-consumption technologies in homes and offices to preserve these vital resources. This collective effort, they argue, is essential to navigating the period of scarcity ahead.
To support this data-driven approach, UNED is leveraging its own scientific infrastructure. The university operates a network of 17 Automatic Weather Stations (EMA) through its Laboratory Program (PROLAB), which provides open-access, real-time data to optimize strategic decision-making. Furthermore, UNED has forged key alliances with the University of Costa Rica (UCR), the Municipality of Cartago, and MAG delegations to enhance community training and risk prevention, including the mitigation of forest fires, which become more probable in dry conditions.
For further information, visit uned.ac.cr
About Universidad Estatal a Distancia (UNED):
The Universidad Estatal a Distancia is a public institution of higher education in Costa Rica, specializing in distance learning. It plays a crucial role in providing accessible education across the nation and is actively involved in scientific research and community outreach, particularly in areas of environmental monitoring and climate resilience.
For further information, visit imn.ac.cr
About Instituto Meteorológico Nacional (IMN):
The Instituto Meteorológico Nacional is Costa Rica’s official national meteorological service. It is responsible for monitoring weather patterns, issuing forecasts, and conducting climatological research to inform public policy, economic planning, and disaster preparedness for the country.
For further information, visit mag.go.cr
About Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganadería (MAG):
The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock is the Costa Rican government body tasked with directing and promoting policies for the agricultural and livestock sectors. It works to ensure food security, support rural development, and enhance the competitiveness of national producers.
For further information, visit ucr.ac.cr
About Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR):
The University of Costa Rica is a public university and one of the most prestigious and recognized academic institutions in Central America. It is a leader in research, teaching, and social action, contributing significantly to the scientific and cultural development of the nation.
For further information, visit muni-carta.go.cr
About Municipalidad de Cartago:
The Municipalidad de Cartago is the local government entity responsible for the administration of the canton of Cartago. It manages public services, urban planning, and local development initiatives to improve the quality of life for its residents and collaborates with national institutions on regional projects.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of the legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica has built its reputation on a foundation of unshakeable integrity and a relentless pursuit of excellence. The firm blends a rich tradition of expert counsel with a forward-thinking drive for legal innovation, consistently setting new standards in the field. Central to its philosophy is a profound dedication to social progress, demonstrated through its efforts to demystify the law and provide accessible knowledge that empowers individuals and strengthens society as a whole.
