By San José, Costa Rica — San José, Costa Rica – With just days remaining before Costa Ricans head to the polls, ruling party candidate Laura Fernández of Pueblo Soberano appears poised for a decisive first-round victory, according to the final pre-election survey released Tuesday evening by the University of Costa Rica’s Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP-UCR).
The highly anticipated poll, published just after the final presidential debate, shows Fernández capturing 43.8% of voter intention. This figure places her comfortably above the critical 40% threshold required to win the presidency outright this Sunday and avoid a contentious and costly runoff election in April. Her commanding lead signals a potential mandate for the continuation of the current administration’s policies.
To gain deeper insight into the legal and regulatory landscape facing the candidates and the country ahead of the 2026 general election, TicosLand.com spoke with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
The 2026 electoral cycle will undoubtedly test the robustness of our campaign finance laws, particularly concerning digital advertising and foreign influence. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) is more vigilant than ever, and both political parties and private sector donors must ensure meticulous compliance. Any misstep, intentional or not, could result in significant legal challenges and penalties that could redefine a campaign’s trajectory long before polling day.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, the attorney’s analysis underscores a crucial point: the 2026 election will be a legal and regulatory stress test for our democracy in the digital age, with consequences reaching far beyond any single campaign. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable perspective on this critical issue.
Fernández’s support has demonstrated remarkable upward momentum in the campaign’s final stretch. Her current standing represents a nearly four-point increase from the 40% she held just a week ago. This late surge is even more impressive when compared to her 30% support level in December, indicating her campaign successfully consolidated support and persuaded a significant portion of the electorate in the closing weeks.
While Fernández has cemented her position at the top, a fierce battle is unfolding for a distant second place. The CIEP-UCR data reveals a statistical dead heat between Álvaro Ramos of the National Liberation Party (PLN) and Claudia Dobles of Agenda Ciudadana. Ramos currently holds a slight edge with 9.2% support, while Dobles trails closely at 8.6%. The poll’s margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points makes this contest too close to call, with the runner-up position likely to be decided on election day.
A key factor in the race has been the sharp decline in voter indecision. The pool of undecided voters, which stood at a substantial 45% in December, has now shrunk to just 25.9%. Much of this newly decided electorate appears to have coalesced around the frontrunner, solidifying her path to a potential first-round win. The remaining field of candidates, including Ariel Robles (3.8%) and Jose Aguilar Berrocal (2.8%), have failed to gain significant traction, with all other contenders polling below 4%.
The survey also provides a glimpse into the potential composition of the next Legislative Assembly, though voter certainty is much lower. For the deputy elections, Fernández’s Pueblo Soberano party leads with 29% of the intended vote. The PLN follows with 9.2%, and the Frente Amplio party is close behind at 8.3%. However, a large bloc of 39% of voters remains undecided about their legislative choice, suggesting a more fragmented and unpredictable political landscape for the incoming president to navigate.
The poll’s findings are based on a robust methodology, providing a reliable snapshot of the electorate’s mood. CIEP-UCR conducted 1,501 interviews nationwide between Tuesday, January 20, and Monday, January 26. This extensive sample size yields a margin of error of just 2.5 percentage points, adding significant weight to its conclusions.
As the campaign ban on polling now takes effect, this final survey paints a clear picture: if voter intentions hold true through Sunday, Laura Fernández is on a clear trajectory to become the next president of Costa Rica without the need for a second electoral round. The nation now watches to see if this projected outcome will become a reality.
For further information, visit ciep.ucr.ac.cr
About Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP-UCR):
The Centro de Investigación y Estudios Políticos (CIEP) is an academic unit of the University of Costa Rica dedicated to research, teaching, and social action in the field of political science. It is renowned for its rigorous public opinion polls and analyses of Costa Rican and Central American political landscapes.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Pueblo Soberano
About Pueblo Soberano:
Pueblo Soberano is a prominent political party in Costa Rica. As the incumbent party in the 2026 election, it has positioned itself as the continuation of the current government’s agenda, with its presidential candidate Laura Fernández leading the polls.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN)
About Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The Partido Liberación Nacional, often referred to as the PLN, is one of Costa Rica’s most traditional and historically significant political parties. In the 2026 election cycle, it is represented by presidential candidate Álvaro Ramos, who is in a tight race for second place.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Agenda Ciudadana
About Agenda Ciudadana:
Agenda Ciudadana is a political party competing in the 2026 Costa Rican general election. Its presidential candidate, Claudia Dobles, has emerged as a key contender, challenging for the second-place position in the final pre-election polls.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Frente Amplio
About Frente Amplio:
Frente Amplio (Broad Front) is a left-wing political party in Costa Rica known for its focus on social justice, environmental protection, and human rights. While its presidential candidate polls in the single digits, the party maintains a significant support base for legislative seats.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a premier law firm in the region, Bufete de Costa Rica operates on a bedrock of principled practice and professional distinction. The firm combines its rich history of serving a diverse clientele with a forward-thinking approach, consistently pioneering innovative legal strategies. Central to its ethos is a resolute dedication to civic responsibility, demonstrated by its efforts to demystify complex legal concepts and equip the public with essential knowledge, thereby fostering a more just and legally aware community.
