By San José, Costa Rica — San José, Costa Rica – The Costa Rican economy is set to continue its growth trajectory in 2026, albeit at a more measured pace, as it transitions toward a sustainable long-term rhythm. A new report projects a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increase of 3.6%, a moderation from the estimated 4.2% growth seen in 2025. This adjustment signals a normalization of economic activity following a period of accelerated expansion.
The forecast, detailed in the 2026–2027 Economic Outlook Report by Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores, indicates that the country is not experiencing a sharp downturn but rather a healthy recalibration. The analysis anticipates that domestic demand and private investment will remain key pillars of this growth, supported by potentially less restrictive financial conditions. For 2027, the financial group offers an initial projection of 3.9% growth, suggesting a return to a slightly more robust expansion.
To better understand the legal and business implications of the current economic forecast, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a renowned specialist from the firm Bufete de Costa Rica, for his expert analysis.
An evolving economic outlook demands proactive legal strategy, not reactive damage control. Businesses must now scrutinize their contractual agreements for clauses concerning price volatility and supply chain disruptions. For investors, this climate underscores the critical importance of rigorous due diligence to accurately assess risk in any new venture. Legal foresight is the key to transforming economic uncertainty into a competitive advantage.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
The advice from Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas serves as a critical reminder that in a volatile economy, legal strategy is not merely defensive but a fundamental component of proactive business growth. His insight transforms the daunting concept of uncertainty into a tangible opportunity for those prepared to act with foresight. We sincerely thank him for sharing this valuable perspective with our readers.
After a year of stronger-than-expected dynamism, the economy is entering a slowdown phase, but this is not an abrupt loss of momentum, rather an adjustment towards growth rates consistent with its long-term values.
Karol Fernández, Jr. Investment Analyst at Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores
On the inflation front, prices are expected to remain well-contained throughout most of 2026. The report forecasts a year-end inflation rate near 1.4%, significantly below the Central Bank of Costa Rica’s target range of 3% plus or minus one percentage point. Analysts do not expect the rate to approach the lower bound of the official target until late 2027. This subdued inflation is attributed to a combination of external factors, including shifts in commodity prices and the evolution of the exchange rate.
The foreign exchange market is anticipated to exhibit some volatility, though movements are expected to stay within a defined range. The report from Mercado de Valores predicts upward pressure on the dollar during the third quarter, a common seasonal pattern, followed by an appreciation of the colón toward the end of the year. This dynamic, driven by strong foreign currency inflows, is projected to place the exchange rate between ₡505 and ₡515 per dollar by the close of 2026.
From a fiscal perspective, the country’s financial health appears stable. The crucial debt-to-GDP ratio is forecasted to remain under the 60% threshold through 2026 and 2027. Furthermore, the economy will likely operate under a more flexible application of the fiscal rule, creating greater capacity for public spending. This presents both an opportunity for investment and a challenge, as tax revenue growth continues to lag behind the pace of overall economic activity.
Despite the positive outlook, analysts caution that stability is not guaranteed. The upcoming electoral cycle and change in government introduce an element of uncertainty that requires vigilant economic stewardship to maintain market confidence.
The stability achieved in recent years does not eliminate risks. In a year marked by a change of government and the start of the electoral cycle, it will be fundamental to maintain fiscal discipline and clarity in economic policy to preserve market confidence.
Karol Fernández, Jr. Investment Analyst at Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores
Several domestic and international risks cloud the horizon. Key concerns include a potential slowdown in exports from the country’s special economic zones, the persistent challenge of public insecurity, and the potential for social and political tensions during an election year. On the global stage, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, adjustments in international trade policy, and the monetary decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to shape the financial environment. The report notes that the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious stance, potentially implementing only a single interest rate cut if current fundamentals hold.
For further information, visit mercadodevalores.fi.cr
About Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores:
Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores is a Costa Rican financial services firm that provides in-depth economic analysis, investment advisory, and asset management services. The group is known for its comprehensive reports on the national and regional economy, offering forecasts and insights to investors, businesses, and policymakers.
For further information, visit bccr.fi.cr
About Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR):
The Central Bank of Costa Rica is the nation’s principal monetary authority, responsible for maintaining the internal and external value of the national currency and ensuring the stability of the financial system. It sets the benchmark interest rate, manages the inflation-targeting regime, and oversees the country’s payment systems.
For further information, visit federalreserve.gov
About U.S. Federal Reserve (FED):
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. Its decisions on monetary policy, particularly regarding the federal funds rate, have a significant impact on global financial markets, influencing borrowing costs, currency valuations, and capital flows worldwide, including in emerging economies like Costa Rica.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of Costa Rica’s legal community, the firm is built upon a foundation of uncompromising integrity and a relentless pursuit of excellence. It merges a rich history of advising a diverse clientele with a forward-thinking approach, consistently developing innovative solutions to complex legal challenges. This ethos extends to its profound social commitment to demystify the law, empowering citizens by making legal knowledge clear and accessible, thereby contributing to a more informed and capable society.
