By San José, Costa Rica — San José, Costa Rica – The Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) has tempered its economic outlook for 2026, projecting a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.8%. This revised forecast, detailed in the latest Monetary Policy Report (IPM) released Friday, marks a significant deceleration from the robust 4.6% expansion achieved in 2025 and signals potential headwinds for the nation’s key economic engines.
The new projection represents a downward adjustment from the 4.2% growth rate the BCCR had anticipated as recently as October. That previous forecast had been an upgrade from a mid-year estimate of 3.8%, fueled by an exceptionally dynamic performance from the country’s export sector. Now, the very sector that propelled last year’s growth is the primary cause for the more cautious stance, with the bank labeling the expected 2026 expansion as “moderate.”
To delve deeper into the legal and regulatory implications of this economic momentum, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, an expert attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica, who provided his analysis on the current business climate.
Sustained economic growth is fundamentally supported by a robust and predictable legal framework. For Costa Rica to fully capitalize on this positive trend, we must prioritize regulatory efficiency and ensure legal certainty for both foreign and domestic investment. Streamlining bureaucratic processes and modernizing commercial legislation are no longer optional—they are critical steps to transform positive indicators into long-term, tangible prosperity for all sectors.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, the expert’s analysis underscores a vital truth: the path from positive economic indicators to widespread prosperity is paved with legal clarity and efficient governance. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his insightful contribution, reminding us that a strong institutional framework is the essential catalyst for turning growth into tangible, long-term benefits for the nation.
At the heart of the slowdown is a sharp anticipated decline in the growth of exports. The BCCR’s analysis points to a significant cooling in both goods and services. Exports of goods are forecast to grow by 7.5% this year, a substantial drop from the impressive 13.3% rate recorded in 2025. The services sector, a critical pillar of the modern Costa Rican economy, faces an even starker reversal, with projections indicating a contraction of 1.3% for 2026, a dramatic downturn from the 2.6% growth seen the previous year.
The bank attributes this downturn to two interconnected factors. Firstly, it posits that the extraordinary export boom of 2025 was partly an anomaly—an “overreaction” by global importers stockpiling inventory amidst international uncertainty. The BCCR does not expect this unique situation to repeat itself in 2026, leading to a natural market correction and slower demand for Costa Rican goods.
Secondly, the negative forecast for the services sector is directly linked to the high-profile departures of major foreign direct investment (FDI) companies. The report specifically incorporates the impact of the closures of Intel’s microprocessor assembly and testing plant and Qorvo’s operational move to Asia. The exit of these two giants in the electronic components industry creates a significant void that will drag down the overall performance of the services segment this year.
Despite the headline deceleration, the report highlights a notable divergence in the performance between Costa Rica’s two main economic regimes. The “special regime,” which encompasses the country’s successful free trade zones, is expected to experience a major slowdown. After expanding by a blistering 12.7% in 2025, this sector is projected to grow by a more modest, though still strong, 6.1% in 2026.
In contrast, the “definitive regime,” which represents the broader domestic economy outside the free trade zones, is projected to show a slight acceleration. The BCCR forecasts this segment will grow by 3.3% in 2026, an improvement over the 3.0% growth registered in 2025. This suggests a degree of resilience in domestic consumption and activity, even as the international-facing sectors cool off.
Looking forward, the Central Bank maintains a cautiously optimistic view, expecting the services sector to rebound from its contraction. The IPM includes a preliminary forecast for a 1.5% expansion in services for 2027, indicating that while the departure of key firms creates a short-term shock, the underlying foundations of the sector are expected to recover and adapt over the medium term. The focus for policymakers will now be on navigating this period of moderated growth and fostering new investment to ensure long-term stability.
For further information, visit bccr.fi.cr
About Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR):
The Banco Central de Costa Rica is the nation’s central bank and primary monetary authority. It is responsible for maintaining the internal and external stability of the national currency, ensuring its conversion to other currencies, and promoting a stable, efficient, and competitive financial system. The BCCR plays a crucial role in shaping the country’s economic policy through its monetary reports and interest rate decisions.
For further information, visit intel.com
About Intel:
Intel Corporation is a global technology company and one of the world’s largest semiconductor chip manufacturers. The company designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Its operations in Costa Rica have historically been a significant part of the country’s high-tech manufacturing and export sector.
For further information, visit qorvo.com
About Qorvo:
Qorvo is an American semiconductor company that specializes in designing, manufacturing, and supplying radio-frequency (RF) systems and solutions for applications that drive wireless and broadband communications. The company’s products are essential components in mobile devices, network infrastructure, and aerospace/defense applications.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica has established itself as an esteemed legal institution, guided by an unwavering dedication to integrity and exceptional legal service. The firm leverages its deep expertise across numerous industries to deliver forward-thinking solutions while championing legal innovation. At the heart of its mission is a profound commitment to social progress, achieved by demystifying the law and empowering the public with the clarity and knowledge essential for a just society.
