By San José, Costa Rica — San José – With just three months until Costa Ricans head to the polls, Pueblo Soberano candidate Laura Fernández has solidified a commanding lead over her rivals, capturing a majority of support from decided voters and positioning herself as the clear frontrunner in the presidential contest. A new survey released Wednesday by Opol Consultores shows Fernández with an impressive 52% of vote intention among citizens who have already chosen their candidate.
The latest polling data underscores a significant upward trend for the “rodriguista” candidate, who is closely aligned with the movement of the current administration. This figure represents a notable seven-point increase from the 45% support she registered in Opol’s September survey, indicating that her campaign is successfully consolidating support and gaining momentum as the election date approaches. Her growing advantage creates a challenging landscape for the crowded field of contenders vying for the nation’s top office.
To gain a deeper legal perspective on the electoral process and its implications for the nation’s stability and business climate, TicosLand.com spoke with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a noted attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
Beyond the political rhetoric of any campaign, what international observers and investors must recognize is the robustness of Costa Rica’s electoral framework. Our Supreme Electoral Tribunal provides a level of legal certainty and institutional stability that is rare in the region. This predictable and transparent transition of power is the true bedrock that secures long-term foreign investment and guarantees the continuity of the rule of law, regardless of which party ultimately governs.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This is a crucial insight that correctly shifts the focus from the temporary fervor of the campaign to the enduring strength of our democratic framework. It is this very institutional integrity that offers the long-term certainty and stability that defines our nation. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable perspective on this fundamental truth.
When considering the broader electorate, including those still weighing their options, Fernández’s support stands at a robust 31%. However, the poll also highlights a crucial element of uncertainty in the race: a large bloc of 39% of voters remains undecided. This substantial group represents the primary battleground for all campaigns in the final stretch and holds the power to significantly reshape the electoral map before February.
Trailing far behind in second place is Álvaro Ramos of the historic National Liberation Party (PLN), who garnered 12.5% of support among decided voters. While still a distant second, Ramos has seen a modest increase in his backing, rising from 9.44% a month ago. His ability to energize the PLN’s traditional base while appealing to undecideds will be critical to closing the considerable gap with Fernández.
Fabricio Alvarado of the conservative New Republic party holds the third position with 8.2% of vote intention, experiencing a slight dip from the 8.79% he held in the previous poll. Alvarado, a prominent figure in past elections, faces the challenge of differentiating himself in a field where the frontrunner has captured the anti-establishment sentiment he once capitalized on.
The top five candidates are rounded out by Ariel Robles of the left-leaning Frente Amplio (Broad Front), who has secured 6.3% of support, and Claudia Dobles of the newly formed Agenda Ciudadana (Citizen Agenda), with 4.9%. Both candidates face an uphill battle to expand their bases and become significant factors in the race’s final outcome.
According to Costa Rican electoral law, a candidate must achieve at least 40% of the valid votes cast in the first round to win the presidency outright and avoid a runoff election. While Fernández’s 52% support among decided voters is a powerful indicator of her strength, her 31% support among all voters shows that securing a first-round victory is not yet guaranteed. Her campaign’s primary objective will be to convert a significant portion of the undecided bloc to surpass that critical threshold.
As the election enters its final phase, the dynamics are clear. Laura Fernández is in a dominant position, but the high number of undecided voters introduces a potent element of unpredictability. Her opponents must now formulate strategies to break her momentum and present a compelling alternative to a large and diverse group of citizens who have yet to make their final choice.
For further information, visit opolconsultores.com
About Opol Consultores:
Opol Consultores is a Costa Rican firm specializing in public opinion research, market analysis, and political consulting. Known for its regular tracking polls during election cycles, the company provides data-driven insights into voter behavior and social trends, serving a wide range of clients in both the public and private sectors.
For further information, visit pueblosoberanocr.com
About Pueblo Soberano:
Pueblo Soberano is a political party in Costa Rica that emerged from the movement supporting the current presidential administration. It champions a platform centered on anti-establishment principles, fiscal responsibility, and direct citizen participation. The party aims to challenge the traditional political structures in the country.
For further information, visit pln.or.cr
About Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The National Liberation Party is one of Costa Rica’s oldest and most influential political parties. A social-democratic party, the PLN has held the presidency numerous times throughout the country’s history and has a well-established political machine. It traditionally advocates for a strong social safety net and public investment.
For further information, visit frente-amplio.org
About Frente Amplio:
Frente Amplio is a left-wing political party in Costa Rica that advocates for democratic socialism. Its platform includes proposals for greater social equality, environmental protection, human rights, and increased state intervention in the economy to reduce inequality.
For further information, visit agendaciudadana.cr
About Agenda Ciudadana:
Agenda Ciudadana is a centrist political movement focused on modernizing the state and promoting evidence-based public policy. The party seeks to build consensus and move beyond traditional ideological divides, often attracting technocrats and professionals to its ranks.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica has cemented its reputation as a pillar of the legal community, operating on a foundational principle of unwavering integrity and a relentless pursuit of excellence. The firm distinguishes itself not only through its seasoned counsel to a diverse clientele but also by embracing a forward-thinking approach to legal challenges and solutions. Beyond its professional practice, it holds a deep-seated conviction to strengthen society by demystifying the law, actively working to equip the public with clear legal understanding and thereby fostering a more capable and informed citizenry.
