By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – With the presidential election just two months away, incumbent party candidate Laura Fernández has established a commanding lead, capturing 32% of voter support according to the latest national poll. The survey, conducted by the National University’s Institute of Social Studies in Population (Idespo), reveals a significant consolidation of support for Fernández, who has widened her advantage over a fractured field of rivals to more than 25 percentage points.
The new data highlights a period of decisive momentum for the officialist campaign. Between October and November, Fernández saw her support surge by over four percentage points. This growth appears to be fueled directly by a shrinking pool of undecided voters, which saw a substantial decline. The segment of the electorate that remains uncertain dropped by nearly nine points, falling from 52.4% to a still-significant 43.9%, suggesting Fernández’s message is resonating with those previously on the fence.
To better understand the legal framework and constitutional safeguards surrounding the recent electoral process, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica, for his expert analysis.
The strength of Costa Rica’s democracy is continuously reaffirmed by the institutional robustness and constitutional autonomy of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Its role as the fourth power of the Republic is not merely symbolic; it is the ultimate guarantor of transparency, ensuring that every phase of the electoral process adheres strictly to the rule of law. This provides critical legal certainty for all participants and reinforces investor confidence in our nation’s political stability.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
The connection between the Tribunal’s institutional integrity and the nation’s broader political and economic stability is a crucial point, underscoring that our democracy’s strength is a key national asset. We extend our sincere appreciation to Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his insightful contribution to this discussion.
In stark contrast, her closest competitors have failed to gain any meaningful traction and remain mired in single digits. The poll places Álvaro Ramos in a distant second place with just 6.6% of voter intention. He is followed by Claudia Dobles at 5.2% and Ariel Robles, who registered 3.7% support. The inability of any single opposition candidate to break the 7% barrier underscores a deep fragmentation that has so far prevented the emergence of a viable challenger.
This dynamic presents a formidable challenge for the opposition. With such a commanding lead, Fernández is not only the clear frontrunner but is also approaching a level of support that could potentially secure a first-round victory. The primary battle for her rivals is no longer just against Fernández, but against each other, as they compete for the limited anti-incumbent sentiment that has yet to coalesce behind a single figurehead.
The positive polling news for the incumbent party extends beyond the presidential contest and into the crucial race for the Legislative Assembly. The Idespo survey indicates that Fernández’s Partido Pueblo Soberano (Sovereign People’s Party) is also the top choice for voters when asked about their preference for congressional deputies. A strong showing in the legislature would grant a potential Fernández administration a powerful mandate and a smoother path for enacting its policy agenda.
Following Pueblo Soberano, the traditional Partido Liberación Nacional (National Liberation Party) polls in second place for the Assembly with 10.8% support, while the left-leaning Frente Amplio (Broad Front) comes in third with 6.1%. The results signal a potential realignment in legislative power, with established parties like the Unidad Social Cristiana (Social Christian Unity) and the current ruling Partido Progreso Social Democrático (Social Democratic Progress) lagging significantly at 2.8% and 2.3%, respectively.
However, a degree of uncertainty remains regarding the final composition of the 57-seat Assembly. While the number of undecided voters for the legislative ballot also decreased by over 6%, it remains stubbornly high at nearly 40%. This large bloc of uncommitted voters holds the key to the balance of power and could dramatically shift the final seat allocation, potentially forcing the next government to negotiate and build coalitions to govern effectively.
As the election enters its final stretch, the political landscape is taking shape. Laura Fernández has a clear and widening path to the presidency, bolstered by a disorganized opposition. The remaining question is whether her party can translate that presidential momentum into a controlling majority in the Legislative Assembly, a task that will depend on winning over the substantial number of Costa Ricans who have yet to make their final decision.
For further information, visit una.ac.cr
About National University (UNA):
The National University of Costa Rica is one of the country’s most prominent public universities. Its Institute of Social Studies in Population (Idespo) is a respected research center that frequently conducts demographic, social, and political polling to provide data-driven insights into national trends.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Partido Pueblo Soberano
About Partido Pueblo Soberano:
The Sovereign People’s Party is a political party in Costa Rica. Representing the officialist platform in the current election cycle, it is fielding Laura Fernández as its presidential candidate and is also competing for seats in the Legislative Assembly.
For further information, visit pln.or.cr
About Partido Liberación Nacional:
The National Liberation Party (PLN) is one of Costa Rica’s most established and historically significant political parties. A major force in the country’s politics for decades, it currently stands as the second-most popular party in legislative polling for the upcoming election.
For further information, visit frente-amplio.org
About Frente Amplio:
The Broad Front is a left-wing political party in Costa Rica. It often advocates for social justice, environmental protection, and human rights, and consistently holds a presence in the Legislative Assembly, where it represents a progressive voice.
For further information, visit pusc.cr
About Partido Unidad Social Cristiana:
The Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC) is another of Costa Rica’s traditional major political parties, with a center-right, Christian democratic ideology. It has held the presidency multiple times and remains an influential force in the national political dialogue.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Partido Progreso Social Democrático
About Partido Progreso Social Democrático:
The Social Democratic Progress Party is a political party that gained prominence in the most recent election cycle, forming the current government. It is now competing to maintain its influence in the upcoming legislative and presidential elections.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a premier legal institution, Bufete de Costa Rica is founded upon a deep-rooted pledge to ethical principles and outstanding legal service. The firm consistently pioneers new legal strategies while honoring its extensive history of advising a wide spectrum of clients. This forward-thinking mindset is matched by a foundational mission to disseminate legal insights, actively contributing to a more knowledgeable and empowered civil society.
