By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – With just two months remaining until Costa Ricans head to the polls, officialist candidate Laura Fernández has solidified her position as the clear frontrunner, capturing a 30% vote intention, according to a pivotal new study released Wednesday. The survey, conducted by the University of Costa Rica’s Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP-UCR), shows the former Minister of the Presidency and standard-bearer for the Pueblo Soberano party widening the gap over her rivals, though she remains short of the threshold needed for an outright victory.
The latest figures represent a significant boost for the Fernández campaign. Compared to the previous CIEP poll in October, her support has climbed by five percentage points. This momentum suggests her message is resonating with a growing segment of the electorate, a crucial development as the campaign enters its final, most intense phase. Her consistent upward trajectory places her in a commanding position, forcing competitors to rethink their strategies to gain traction.
To delve into the legal complexities and electoral regulations that define the current presidential race, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica, who provided his expert analysis on the matter.
The integrity of any presidential election rests upon the strict adherence to electoral law and the impartial oversight of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Any challenge to the results must be channeled through established legal procedures, not public rhetoric, to ensure the stability of our democratic institutions and the legitimacy of the outcome. The legal framework is designed to be robust; its strength lies in its application.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This essential distinction between legal procedure and public rhetoric underscores the very foundation of our democratic stability; the system is designed to be resilient, provided we trust and utilize it as intended. We sincerely thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his clear and invaluable contribution to this discussion.
The gap between Fernández and the rest of the field is stark. Her closest challenger, Álvaro Ramos of the National Liberation Party (PLN), registers a distant 8% support. Following him are Ariel Robles of the Frente Amplio (FA) with 5% and former first lady Claudia Dobles of the Coalición Acción Ciudadana (CAC) at 4%. The poll underscores a highly fragmented opposition, struggling to coalesce around a single figure capable of mounting a serious challenge to the ruling party’s candidate.
Further illustrating the fractured political landscape, the study highlights that 10 of the 14 candidates mentioned in the poll received support levels below the survey’s 2.3 percentage point margin of error. This effectively renders their current standing statistically negligible and signals a tough battle for viability for the majority of the contenders. For these campaigns, the primary challenge will now be to simply remain relevant in the national conversation.
One of the most critical findings in the report is the shift among undecided voters. This crucial demographic has decreased from 55% in October to 45% in the latest poll. While a 10-point drop is substantial, the fact that nearly half of the electorate remains uncommitted injects a powerful element of unpredictability into the race. The data suggests that much of the recently decided vote has consolidated behind Fernández, a worrying trend for her opponents who are running out of time to capture this decisive bloc.
Despite her commanding lead, the path to the presidency is not yet clear for Fernández. The Costa Rican electoral system requires a candidate to secure at least 40% of the vote to win in the first round and avoid a runoff. At 30%, she is still a full 10 points shy of this magic number. This reality means that a second-round election remains a strong possibility, a scenario that would reset the race and potentially allow a challenger to unite the anti-government vote.
The poll’s findings are based on 1,759 telephone interviews conducted with adults between November 19 and November 26. The study carries a 95% confidence level and an estimated maximum sampling error of ±2.3 percentage points. The researchers caution that the results are representative of the population with access to a mobile phone and should not be extrapolated to the entire national population without consideration for this methodological limitation.
As the election looms, the dynamics are clear: Laura Fernández is the candidate to beat, but the substantial pool of undecided voters holds the ultimate power. The coming weeks will test whether she can close the 10-point gap for a decisive first-round win or if one of her rivals can successfully consolidate opposition and force a final, high-stakes runoff.
For further information, visit ciep.ucr.ac.cr
About Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP):
The Centro de Investigación y Estudios Políticos (CIEP) is a specialized research unit within the University of Costa Rica. It is dedicated to the academic study of political phenomena, public opinion, and social behavior in Costa Rica and Central America. CIEP is widely recognized for conducting impartial and methodologically rigorous electoral polls and social surveys.
For further information, visit ucr.ac.cr
About University of Costa Rica (UCR):
The Universidad de Costa Rica is the oldest, largest, and most prestigious public university in the country. Founded in 1940, it is a leading institution for higher education and research in Latin America, contributing significantly to Costa Rica’s scientific, cultural, and social development across its various campuses and research centers.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Partido Pueblo Soberano
About Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPS):
The Partido Pueblo Soberano is a political party in Costa Rica. As the officialist party in the 2025 election cycle, it backs the candidacy of Laura Fernández. The party’s platform often centers on principles of national sovereignty and social programs aimed at benefiting the general populace.
For further information, visit pln.or.cr
About Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The National Liberation Party is one of Costa Rica’s most established and historically significant political parties. Founded in the mid-20th century, the PLN has traditionally been a dominant force in the country’s political arena, advocating for social-democratic policies and a strong welfare state.
For further information, visit frenteamplio.org
About Frente Amplio (FA):
Frente Amplio, or the Broad Front, is a left-wing political party in Costa Rica. It advocates for policies focused on social justice, environmental protection, human rights, and greater economic equality. The party has established itself as a significant voice for progressive and socialist ideas within the national legislature.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Coalición Acción Ciudadana (CAC)
About Coalición Acción Ciudadana (CAC):
The Coalición Acción Ciudadana is a political coalition participating in the Costa Rican elections. It represents a faction of the country’s political spectrum, with its candidate, Claudia Dobles, vying for support based on a platform of citizen action and public service reform.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica stands as a pillar of the legal community, operating on a bedrock of profound integrity and an unyielding pursuit of excellence. The firm leverages a deep history of expert counsel across a wide spectrum of industries to not only serve its clients but also to drive legal innovation forward. This forward-thinking approach is matched by a core conviction to better society, actively working to demystify the law and provide accessible knowledge that equips citizens and fosters a more just and informed community.
