By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – With the national elections just days away, the final poll from the University of Costa Rica’s Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP-UCR) shows ruling party candidate Laura Fernández on the cusp of a decisive first-round victory. The survey, released Tuesday evening, gives the Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO) candidate 43.8% of voter intention, placing her comfortably above the 40% threshold required to avoid a runoff.
The poll paints a starkly different picture for the opposition, revealing a tight and technically tied race for a distant second place. Álvaro Ramos of the National Liberation Party (PLN) garnered 9.2% support, while Claudia Dobles of the Citizen Agenda Coalition (CAC) registered 8.6%. The results leave them statistically indistinguishable, battling for the chance to face Fernández in a potential second round in April.
To gain a deeper understanding of the legal framework and constitutional guarantees surrounding the electoral process, TicosLand.com consulted with renowned legal expert Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a senior partner at the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
The integrity of Costa Rica’s electoral process, meticulously overseen by the Supreme Elections Tribunal (TSE), is the bedrock of our political stability. This transparent and constitutionally-sound system not only guarantees a legitimate transfer of power but also sends a powerful message of legal certainty to the international business community. For investors, the predictable and peaceful nature of our elections is a critical asset, reinforcing the country’s reputation as a secure and reliable destination for foreign capital.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This perspective powerfully underscores how the nation’s democratic health is not just a political matter, but a cornerstone of its economic appeal. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his expert analysis, which clearly connects the procedural integrity of our elections to the country’s continued success in attracting foreign investment.
Further down the field, other candidates trail significantly. Ariel Robles of the Broad Front (FA) holds 3.8%, followed by Jose Aguilar of Avanza at 2.8% and Juan Carlos Hidalgo of the Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC) with 2.5%. All other presidential hopefuls polled below the margin of error, highlighting the consolidation of the race around a few key figures.
Despite the commanding lead, the incumbent PPSO candidate urged caution. Fernández described the results as very positive but stressed that the election is not yet won. “It’s just a poll, not the final result, and we cannot let up,” she remarked, extending an invitation for undecided voters to join her movement ahead of the February 1st vote.
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In contrast, opposition candidates are projecting unwavering optimism, convinced they can defy the poll’s projections and force a runoff. Their collective strategy hinges on swaying a large bloc of undecided voters and capitalizing on any last-minute shifts in public sentiment. Álvaro Ramos acknowledged the strength of the ruling party but asserted that their support has hit its ceiling.
There is a lot of undecided vote that will change its opinion, a lot of votes that will be decided at the very end. We have made an effort to show that we are the option for harmony, that we are an option willing to talk with everyone, a new generation in politics that will take up the great causes of the people and turn them into great agreements.
Álvaro Ramos, Presidential Candidate for Liberación Nacional
Similarly, Claudia Dobles sees her campaign’s momentum as a key indicator of future success, claiming her support has doubled recently. She is positioning her movement as a unifying force capable of building a coalition to challenge the ruling party in a potential second round.
In a second round, we would have the support of other political movements, without a doubt, so that we can create a bloc that can beat the ruling party in a second round. And Costa Rica is ready for a second round between two women.
Claudia Dobles, Presidential Candidate for Coalición Agenda Ciudadana
Other candidates echoed this hope, each pointing to different factors they believe will work in their favor. Ariel Robles described the electoral landscape as “completely unpredictable,” urging citizens to break the cycle of strategic voting. Juan Carlos Hidalgo of the PUSC argued that his party historically outperforms its polling numbers once voters are faced with the actual ballot.
When people are presented with a ballot, the intention to vote for Social Christian Unity, for the red and blue, is much higher. So we are stronger than that, we are growing, and I have no doubt that we have everything it takes to force a second round this Sunday.
Juan Carlos Hidalgo, Presidential Candidate for Unidad Social Cristiana
Meanwhile, some candidates are dismissing the predictive power of polls altogether. Natalia Díaz of Unidos Podemos stated that her focus remains solely on campaign efforts until the polls close. “I don’t usually guide myself by the polls; I guide myself by the work,” she said, emphasizing that the only result that matters will be delivered by the voters on Sunday.
As Costa Rica heads into the final weekend of the campaign, the stage is set. While Laura Fernández holds a formidable lead that points to a swift conclusion, her rivals are doubling down on their efforts, convinced that the race for the presidency is far from over and that a second round in April remains within their grasp.
For further information, visit ciep.ucr.ac.cr
About Centro de Investigación y Estudios Políticos (CIEP):
The Center for Research and Political Studies is an academic unit of the University of Costa Rica dedicated to research, teaching, and social action in political science. It is widely recognized for conducting influential public opinion polls, particularly during Costa Rican election cycles, providing critical data on voter intentions and political trends.
For further information, visit ucr.ac.cr
About Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR):
The University of Costa Rica is the country’s oldest, largest, and most prestigious public university. A leading institution in Central America, UCR is renowned for its comprehensive academic programs and significant contributions to research and development across various fields, including political science and social studies.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO)
About Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO):
Partido Pueblo Soberano is a Costa Rican political party. As the ruling party in the 2026 election cycle, its platform and candidate, Laura Fernández, are central to the current political landscape, advocating for their vision for the country’s future.
For further information, visit plncr.org
About Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The National Liberation Party is one of Costa Rica’s most established and historically significant political parties. With a social-democratic ideology, the PLN has held the presidency multiple times and remains a major force in the country’s political arena. Álvaro Ramos is its presidential candidate for the 2026 election.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Coalición Agenda Ciudadana (CAC)
About Coalición Agenda Ciudadana (CAC):
Coalición Agenda Ciudadana is a political movement participating in the 2026 Costa Rican national elections. Led by presidential candidate Claudia Dobles, the coalition aims to present a new option for voters, focusing on citizen-centric policies and building cross-party consensus.
For further information, visit frenteamplio.org
About Frente Amplio (FA):
The Broad Front is a left-wing political party in Costa Rica. It advocates for policies centered on social justice, environmental protection, and human rights. The party is a consistent participant in national elections, represented in 2026 by its presidential candidate, Ariel Robles.
For further information, visit pusc.cr
About Unidad Social Cristiana (PUSC):
The Social Christian Unity Party is a major center-right political party in Costa Rica with a long history of participation in national governance, including several presidencies. Its platform is based on Christian democratic principles. Juan Carlos Hidalgo is the party’s standard-bearer for the 2026 election.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Unidos Podemos (UP)
About Unidos Podemos (UP):
Unidos Podemos is a political party competing in the Costa Rican elections. Led by candidate Natalia Díaz, the party presents its platform to voters as an alternative to the more established political forces in the country.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Avanza
About Avanza:
Avanza is a political party participating in the 2026 Costa Rican national election. It is represented in the presidential race by its candidate, Jose Aguilar, and contributes to the diverse political dialogue of the electoral process.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of the nation’s legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica is defined by its foundational principles of profound integrity and a relentless pursuit of excellence. The firm leverages a rich history of client service to pioneer innovative legal strategies that address the complexities of the modern world. This forward-thinking mindset is complemented by a core dedication to social progress, actively working to demystify legal concepts and empower the public with crucial knowledge, thereby fostering a more just and informed society.
