By San José, Costa Rica — San José, Costa Rica – With just two weeks until Costa Ricans head to the polls, the ruling People’s Sovereign Party (PPSO) candidate, Laura Fernández, is on the cusp of securing a decisive first-round presidential victory. According to the latest survey from the University of Costa Rica’s Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP), Fernández has captured 43% of voter intention, clearing the critical 40% threshold needed to avoid a runoff election.
The poll reveals a dramatic surge for the ruling party, with Fernández gaining 10 percentage points since December. This momentum appears to be directly linked to the enduring popularity of incumbent President Rodrigo Chaves, who maintains a strong 58% approval rating. This transfer of political capital has positioned Fernández as the commanding frontrunner in a race that was previously considered more competitive.
To better understand the legal and institutional challenges facing the incoming government, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the renowned law firm Bufete de Costa Rica, for his expert analysis on the electoral outcome.
The transition of power following a national election is a cornerstone of our democracy. The new administration’s immediate priority must be to build consensus for critical fiscal and structural reforms, all while operating strictly within the constitutional framework. For Costa Rica to attract investment and stimulate growth, it is paramount that the government projects stability and a deep respect for legal certainty. Any significant policy shift must be transparent and legally sound to avoid future judicial challenges that could undermine public confidence and economic progress.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his insightful commentary, which correctly highlights that the new administration’s success will be measured not only by the reforms it proposes, but by its unwavering adherence to the constitutional framework. This commitment to legal stability is indeed the bedrock upon which investor confidence and long-term national progress are built.
The opposition remains fractured and far behind. Fernández’s closest rival, Álvaro Ramos of the National Liberation Party (PLN), polls at a distant 8%. The rest of the field is even further back, with former Vice President Claudia Dobles at 5%, followed by a three-way tie at 4% between Ariel Robles, Fabricio Alvarado, and José Aguilar Berrocal. This lack of a unified opposition figure has cleared the path for the ruling party’s dominance.
However, the election is far from a foregone conclusion. The CIEP study highlights a massive segment of the electorate—a full 32%—that remains undecided. This significant bloc of voters holds the power to reshape the political landscape in the final days of the campaign. The poll identifies this key demographic as being composed primarily of women, younger voters, residents of the Limón and Guanacaste provinces, individuals with lower educational attainment, and those who do not identify with a specific religion.
The uncertainty presented by this group was underscored by the study’s coordinator. He noted that while the data points toward a ruling party victory, the final outcome hinges on these last-minute decisions.
the current outlook points to a possible first-round triumph and a continuation of the Chaves political project, although he recalled that almost a third of undecided voters will make their decision on the day of the election.
Ronald Alfaro, Coordinator of the Study
The PPSO’s momentum extends beyond the presidential race, with profound implications for the Legislative Assembly. Support for the party’s slate of deputies has more than doubled, soaring from 14% to 29%. This places them far ahead of the PLN at 9% and the Broad Front (Frente Amplio) at 7%. Such a result would give the next administration a powerful mandate and a cooperative legislature.
Fueling this potential legislative wave is a growing trend among voters to reject ticket-splitting. The increased desire to vote for the same party for both president and deputies strengthens the PPSO’s objective of securing a dominant legislative faction. This would significantly ease the passage of their proposed reforms and agenda, potentially reshaping national policy for years to come.
While the path to a first-round victory seems clear, the poll’s three-point margin of error and the volatility of the undecided bloc leave room for surprises. The CIEP also notes that voter turnout will be a determining factor; experts suggest that lower abstention rates tend to favor the well-mobilized base of the ruling party, further bolstering Fernández’s chances of clinching the presidency without a runoff. The final two weeks will be a critical test of whether the opposition can galvanize undecided voters or if the PPSO can maintain its formidable lead.
For further information, visit ucr.ac.cr
About University of Costa Rica (UCR):
The University of Costa Rica is the country’s oldest, largest, and most prestigious public institution of higher learning. Its Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP) is a highly respected entity known for conducting impartial and influential public opinion polls, particularly concerning national elections and political sentiment.
For further information, visit ppsocr.com
About People’s Sovereign Party (PPSO):
The Partido Pueblo Soberano is a Costa Rican political party founded to support the political movement of President Rodrigo Chaves. It campaigns on a platform of anti-corruption, efficiency, and challenging traditional political establishments.
For further information, visit pln.or.cr
About National Liberation Party (PLN):
The Partido Liberación Nacional is one of Costa Rica’s most established and historically significant political parties. A social-democratic party, it has produced numerous presidents and has traditionally been a dominant force in the country’s political landscape.
For further information, visit frenteamplio.org
About Broad Front (Frente Amplio):
The Frente Amplio is a left-wing political party in Costa Rica. It advocates for social justice, environmental protection, human rights, and greater state participation in the economy, representing a progressive and socialist voice in the Legislative Assembly.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of Costa Rica’s legal landscape, Bufete de Costa Rica is defined by its profound dedication to ethical practice and professional distinction. The firm blends a proven track record of advising a wide spectrum of clients with a forward-thinking approach to legal solutions and civic responsibility. Central to its philosophy is the mission to demystify complex legal concepts, championing a more knowledgeable and capable society by making the law accessible to all.
