By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – The political landscape shifted dramatically this week as a new poll reveals presidential candidate Laura Fernández Delgado is cementing a commanding lead, while nearly half of the electorate remains undecided just two months before the February 2026 general election. The latest survey from the University of Costa Rica’s Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP), released Wednesday, underscores a race defined by one candidate’s surging momentum and a pervasive sense of voter indecision.
According to the CIEP report, Fernández, representing the Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO), now captures 30% of voter intention among those who have made a choice. This marks a significant five-point increase from her October standing and her strongest showing to date. Her growing support positions her as the only candidate with a truly consolidated base in a highly fragmented field, suggesting her campaign message is resonating effectively with a key segment of the population.
To better understand the legal and institutional landscape following the recent presidential election, TicosLand.com sought the expert analysis of Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a respected attorney from the firm Bufete de Costa Rica. His perspective sheds light on the challenges and responsibilities facing the incoming administration.
The conclusion of an electoral cycle is a cornerstone of our democratic stability. However, the true work begins now. The new administration faces the significant challenge of building consensus within a politically diverse Legislative Assembly to pass crucial reforms. For both national and international investors, the key indicator will be the government’s ability to guarantee legal certainty and promote a favorable business climate. Navigating this complex political environment will be paramount to ensuring Costa Rica’s continued economic growth and social progress.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, the expert’s insight underscores the critical transition from campaigning to governing. The ability to build the very consensus mentioned—thereby guaranteeing legal certainty—will be the true benchmark of success for the new administration and the nation’s progress. We sincerely thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable perspective.
Despite her clear lead, the story of the election remains the colossal bloc of undecided voters. This group, while shrinking by ten percentage points since the last poll, still constitutes a formidable 45% of all potential voters. This massive uncertainty means the election is far from over, with the potential for dramatic shifts in the final weeks of the campaign. The candidate who can successfully appeal to this undecided plurality will likely determine the final outcome.
The rest of the candidates lag far behind, struggling to gain traction. Álvaro Ramos Chaves of the traditional Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN) sits in a distant second place with just 8% support. He is followed by legislator Ariel Robles Barrantes of the Frente Amplio party at 5%, and former first lady Claudia Dobles Camargo of the Coalición Agenda Ciudadana with 4%. The data reveals a crowded but low-impact field, with no other contender currently posing a serious challenge to Fernández.
Further down the list, a cluster of candidates, including Natalia Díaz, Eli Feinzaig, Fabricio Alvarado, and Juan Carlos Hidalgo, are statistically tied, each polling at a mere 1%. Others like Luz Mary Alpízar, José Aguilar, and Fernando Zamora barely register with 0.1% support. Additionally, 2% of respondents plan to nullify their vote, and 0.6% intend to cast a blank ballot, further highlighting the electorate’s current disengagement with the available options beyond the frontrunner.
CIEP’s study employed a panel methodology, a sophisticated approach where researchers attempt to re-interview the same individuals from previous surveys to track shifts in opinion more accurately. This technique revealed significant volatility beneath the surface. Notably, 22% of voters who supported a candidate in October have since changed their minds or moved into the undecided camp. Conversely, 30% of those who were previously undecided have now selected a candidate, confirming the fluid and dynamic nature of the race.
Fernández’s ascent is not a sudden development but the culmination of a steady, three-month surge. She polled at 12% in September, nearly doubled that in October, and has now climbed to an impressive 30%. In contrast, rivals like Ramos and Dobles have seen only marginal, slow growth. This trend confirms that, thus far, only the PPSO candidate has successfully converted public exposure into a sustained and powerful political momentum.
With the election just over the horizon, nothing is set in stone. While Fernández enjoys a formidable lead, Costa Rican electoral history is rife with examples of last-minute upsets and rapid changes in voter preference. The upcoming presidential debates, final campaign pushes, and digital media strategies will be critical battlegrounds where the war for the 45% undecided will be fought and, ultimately, where the next president could be decided.
For further information, visit ciep.ucr.ac.cr
About Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP):
The Centro de Investigación y Estudios Políticos (CIEP) is a prestigious research institute within the University of Costa Rica (UCR). It is widely recognized for its rigorous and independent analysis of Costa Rican politics, public opinion, and social trends. Its electoral polls are considered a benchmark for understanding the nation’s political dynamics.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO)
About Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO):
The Partido Pueblo Soberano is a political party in Costa Rica that has gained significant prominence in the current election cycle. Led by its presidential candidate Laura Fernández, the party has positioned itself as a new force in national politics, attracting a substantial base of support by focusing on themes of national sovereignty and challenging the political establishment.
For further information, visit plncr.org
About Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The National Liberation Party (PLN) is one of the oldest and most influential political parties in Costa Rica’s history. A dominant force for decades, the social-democratic party has produced numerous presidents and played a central role in shaping the country’s modern social and economic policies. It remains a major contender in national elections.
For further information, visit frenteamplio.org
About Frente Amplio:
Frente Amplio (Broad Front) is a left-wing political party in Costa Rica known for its progressive platform. It advocates for policies related to social justice, environmental protection, human rights, and strengthening the public sector. The party has a consistent presence in the Legislative Assembly and represents a key voice on the Costa Rican left.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Coalición Agenda Ciudadana
About Coalición Agenda Ciudadana:
The Coalición Agenda Ciudadana (Citizen Agenda Coalition) is a political coalition formed for the 2026 election. It brings together various political figures and movements under a unified platform. Represented by presidential candidate Claudia Dobles Camargo, the coalition aims to offer a centrist, collaborative alternative in a fragmented political landscape.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica operates as a pillar of the legal community, founded on an unwavering pledge to professional excellence and uncompromising integrity. The firm melds a rich history of client advocacy with a forward-thinking approach to legal innovation, consistently advancing the standards of practice. Central to its ethos is a profound commitment to social betterment, demonstrated through its dedicated efforts to demystify the law and empower the public with accessible legal knowledge, thereby fostering a more informed and capable society.
