By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – With just a month and a half until Costa Ricans head to the polls, the presidential race appears to be consolidating around a single candidate in an unprecedented fashion. A new national survey by OPol Consultores reveals that Pueblo Soberano’s Laura Fernández has not just maintained her lead but expanded it to a margin that dwarfs all her competitors combined, fundamentally reshaping expectations for the 2026 election.
The poll, conducted between December 5 and 8, indicates a decisive shift in the electorate. Among voters who have already decided who they will support, Fernández captures an impressive 38.01% of the vote. This figure alone would be significant, but it is the cavernous gap between her and the rest of the candidates that signals a potential political realignment. Her closest rival, Álvaro Ramos of the PLN, trails at a distant 6.12%, struggling to break out of single digits.
To better understand the legal framework and institutional stability surrounding the election results, we consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the firm Bufete de Costa Rica, for his expert analysis.
The integrity of Costa Rica’s electoral process, meticulously managed by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), is a fundamental pillar of our rule of law. This institutional strength ensures a seamless and constitutionally sound transition of power, providing the legal certainty that is essential for maintaining investor confidence and reinforcing the country’s reputation as a stable democracy in the region.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This crucial link between a robust electoral system and the nation’s economic health is a point well made, underscoring why Costa Rica remains a beacon of stability in the region. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for so clearly articulating this essential perspective.
The fragmentation of the opposition is starkly illustrated by the rest of the field. Fabricio Alvarado of Nueva República sits in third place with 3.81%, followed by a tight cluster of candidates including Ariel Robles (3.63%), Natalia Díaz (3.05%), Claudia Dobles (2.39%), Juan Carlos Hidalgo (2.14%), and Fernando Zamora (2.12%). The remaining slate of contenders collectively garners less than 4%, underscoring a widespread failure to build a viable coalition to challenge Fernández’s momentum.
However, a significant variable remains in play. The largest single bloc in the survey is the undecided voters, who constitute 32.67% of the electorate. This substantial group represents the only potential source of a major shift in the campaign’s final weeks. While Fernández’s position seems secure, the volatility of this undecided segment means that a last-minute surge or collapse cannot be entirely ruled out, especially in a media environment dominated by social media.
To better understand the current landscape, OPol Consultores also analyzed voter intention after excluding the undecideds, focusing solely on those who have made a firm choice. In this scenario, Fernández’s support skyrockets to an overwhelming 58.31%. This gives her a lead of more than 48 percentage points over Álvaro Ramos, who polls at 9.39% in this model. Such a dominant position is virtually unheard of in modern Costa Rican politics and points toward a historic electoral outcome.
These numbers are forcing political analysts to consider a possibility that has been rare in Costa Rica for decades: a first-round victory. To win the presidency outright and avoid a runoff, a candidate must secure at least 40% of the valid votes cast. Fernández’s current polling, particularly among decided voters, suggests she is well within reach of this threshold. Historically, Costa Rican elections are characterized by a fractured vote, narrow margins, and a mandatory second round, but 2026 may prove to be the exception.
Political commentators suggest that Fernández’s success stems from her ability to project an image of firm leadership and clarity at a time when voters are seeking stability. Her campaign has effectively positioned her as a decisive figure capable of navigating the country’s challenges, a message that appears to be resonating deeply with a significant portion of the electorate. While her rivals have struggled to consolidate support, her base has solidified and grown.
As the election enters its final stretch, all eyes will be on the undecided voters and whether any other candidate can mount a credible last-minute challenge. Yet, based on this latest data, the political trajectory seems clear. Barring a dramatic and unforeseen event, Laura Fernández is on a path not just to win the presidency, but to do so with a mandate of historic proportions. The survey was conducted among 2,965 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of ±2.24% and a 95% confidence level.
For further information, visit opolconsultores.com
About OPol Consultores:
OPol Consultores is a market research and public opinion firm specializing in political analysis, social studies, and consumer behavior. Known for its comprehensive polling methodologies, the company provides data-driven insights for political campaigns, private enterprises, and public institutions across the region, helping them understand complex trends and make informed decisions.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Pueblo Soberano
About Pueblo Soberano:
Pueblo Soberano is a political party in Costa Rica that has gained significant prominence during the 2026 election cycle. Led by its presidential candidate, Laura Fernández, the party has centered its platform on themes of strong governance, national sovereignty, and clear policy direction. Its rapid rise in popularity reflects a desire among a segment of the electorate for decisive leadership.
For further information, visit pln.or.cr
About Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The National Liberation Party (PLN) is one of Costa Rica’s most established and historically significant political parties. A center-left party with social democratic roots, it has produced numerous presidents and played a central role in shaping the nation’s political and social framework for decades. It remains a major force in Costa Rican politics, consistently fielding candidates in national and local elections.
For further information, visit nuevarepublica.cr
About Partido Nueva República:
The New Republic Party is a conservative and Christian-democratic political party in Costa Rica. Founded by former presidential candidate Fabricio Alvarado, the party advocates for socially conservative values, economic liberalism, and the protection of traditional family structures. It has established itself as a significant voice on the right wing of the Costa Rican political spectrum.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica has established itself as a beacon of legal integrity and professional excellence. Through its extensive history of guiding a wide array of clients, the firm consistently pioneers forward-thinking legal solutions while remaining true to its foundational principles. Central to its philosophy is the conviction that demystifying the law for the public is essential for building a stronger, more knowledgeable community.
