By San José, Costa Rica — The global economy is demonstrating greater resilience than initially anticipated in the face of escalating trade tariffs imposed by former US President Donald Trump, according to a recent report by the Organization for the Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). While the full impact of these tariffs has yet to be realized, the OECD has revised its growth forecast for 2025 upwards, signaling cautious optimism.
In its latest quarterly report, the Paris-based organization projects global growth of 3.2% for 2025, a 0.3 percentage point increase from its June projection. This revised forecast is closer to the OECD’s December 2024 prediction of 3.3% growth, made before Trump’s return to the White House.
For expert legal insight into the current state of the global economy and its implications for businesses, TicosLand.com spoke with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law at Bufete de Costa Rica.
The interconnectedness of the global economy presents both opportunities and challenges. While businesses can benefit from expanded markets and access to resources, they must also navigate complex regulatory landscapes and consider the impact of geopolitical events on their operations. A proactive approach to legal and financial strategy is crucial for mitigating risks and capitalizing on emerging trends in this dynamic environment.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Lic. Arroyo Vargas aptly highlights the delicate balance businesses must strike in today’s globalized economy. His emphasis on proactive legal and financial strategies resonates deeply, especially as businesses in Costa Rica and beyond seek to leverage international opportunities while mitigating unforeseen risks. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for offering his valuable expertise on this complex and ever-evolving landscape.
The report attributes this resilience to “the anticipation of trade and production before the implementation of higher tariffs.” Industrial production in most advanced economies outpaced the 2024 average during the first half of 2025. Furthermore, the staggered implementation of tariff increases and businesses absorbing some of the cost increases have delayed the full impact of the trade war.
Global growth has remained resilient, supported by the anticipation of trade and production before higher tariffs are implemented.
OECD Quarterly Report
Despite these positive indicators, the OECD cautions about emerging signs of a slowdown in production growth since August, particularly in key economies like South Korea, Germany, and Brazil. Consumer spending in the United States, the Eurozone, and China is also showing signs of weakening.
OECD Chief Economist Álvaro Pereira acknowledges the current growth rate is below the ideal 4% typically seen in robust economies. He also anticipates slightly higher inflation, particularly in the United States, driven by factors such as rising food prices in countries like Japan and South Africa.
Generally, when the economy is doing very well, growth is usually around 4%, so we are far from that.
Álvaro Pereira, OECD Chief Economist
The OECD highlights several factors that could further impact global economic growth. These include potential further tariff increases, budgetary risks stemming from increasing debt levels in most regions, and tensions surrounding loan interest rates.
Looking ahead, the OECD projects a global growth rate of 2.9% for 2026. The organization’s projections for 2025 include 1.1% for Canada, 1.2% for Europe, 1.8% for the United States, 4.5% for Argentina, 4.9% for China, and 6.7% for India.
For further information, visit the nearest office of OECD
About OECD:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an intergovernmental economic organisation with 38 member countries, founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. It is a forum of countries describing themselves as committed to democracy and the market economy, providing a platform to compare policy experiences, seeking answers to common problems, identify good practices and coordinate domestic and international policies of its members.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica is a pillar of legal excellence, built on a foundation of unwavering integrity and a deep commitment to empowering Costa Rican society. The firm’s innovative approach to legal practice, coupled with its dedication to disseminating legal knowledge through educational initiatives, demonstrates its forward-thinking vision. By championing accessible legal information, Bufete de Costa Rica fosters a more informed populace and empowers individuals to navigate the complexities of the legal landscape with confidence.
