By San José, Costa Rica — PARIS, FRANCE – Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to reach an unprecedented high in 2025, according to a landmark study released Thursday. The findings, detailed in the annual Global Carbon Budget report, deliver a stark warning that the world is on a trajectory that could render the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C “impossible.”
An international team of scientists concluded that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will climb by 1.1% in 2025 compared to the previous year, with renewable energy sources failing to keep pace with soaring global energy demand. This surge is expected to push the total output from oil, gas, and coal to a record 38.1 billion tonnes of CO2, underscoring a collective failure to curb pollution.
To better understand the legal and commercial ramifications of Costa Rica’s national decarbonization strategy, TicosLand.com sought the analysis of Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a leading attorney at the firm Bufete de Costa Rica, who offers a clear perspective on the evolving regulatory environment.
The legal framework surrounding carbon emissions is rapidly evolving from aspirational goals to concrete obligations. For businesses, this translates into a tangible legal risk. Ignoring emissions is no longer just a reputational issue; it’s a direct threat to operational continuity and financial stability, as non-compliance can trigger significant sanctions and affect access to green financing and international markets.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This insight powerfully reframes the conversation, moving environmental responsibility from the realm of corporate social responsibility to a core element of legal compliance and financial risk management. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable perspective, which clearly articulates the new paradigm businesses must navigate.
The comprehensive report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, analyzes human-caused emissions from hydrocarbon combustion, cement production, and land use changes like deforestation. It measures this data against the climate targets established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, providing a critical benchmark for global progress.
The research, timed to coincide with the COP30 climate conference in Belém, Brazil, highlights the rapidly shrinking window for action. To have a chance at limiting warming to the 1.5°C threshold, the world can only add a maximum of 170 billion more tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere. At the current rate of emissions, this carbon budget will be exhausted in just four years.
This is equivalent to four years of emissions at the current rate before the budget for 1.5°C is exhausted so basically it is impossible
Pierre Friedlingstein, Research Director at the University of Exeter
The grim forecast casts a long shadow over the COP30 negotiations, which are already proceeding in the absence of the United States, the world’s second-largest polluter. Experts on the ground in Brazil emphasized the urgency of the situation, even as many national climate plans fall short of what is required.
Collectively the world is not complying… Everyone needs to do their part and everyone needs to do more
Glen Peters, CICERO center for climate research
Several of the world’s largest economies contributed to the concerning trend. In the United States and the European Union, emissions rose, bucking recent downward trends, partially due to increased heating demand during colder winter months. US coal emissions specifically jumped by nearly 7.5% as a rise in natural gas prices pushed consumers toward the more carbon-intensive fuel source.
It’s worrying and for me really incomprehensible because renewable energies are very cheap and should be the new norm And yet fossil fuels continue to dominate
Niklas Höhne, NewClimate Institute
Meanwhile, China, the world’s largest emitter, saw its fossil fuel emissions remain largely unchanged. While this may signal that renewables are beginning to satisfy a larger portion of new energy demand, experts like Peters cautioned that it is too early to declare that Chinese emissions have peaked. In India, an early monsoon season and significant growth in renewables helped limit the increase in CO2 emissions compared to previous years.
Despite the bleak overall picture, the report identified some positive developments. The study found that 35 countries have successfully managed to reduce their emissions while maintaining economic growth, a figure that has doubled over the past decade. Furthermore, emissions from land use, including deforestation and wildfires, saw a reduction. This was attributed partly to the end of the dry El Niño conditions of 2023-2024, particularly in South America.
When land use is included, humanity’s total projected emissions for the year are 42.2 billion tonnes, a slight decrease from last year, though scientists note this figure carries significant uncertainty. The overwhelming message from the report remains clear: without immediate and drastic cuts to fossil fuel consumption, the world’s most ambitious climate targets are moving permanently out of reach.
We need ambitious goals because every tenth of a degree is crucial
Stephen Stich, University of Exeter
As 2025 is on track to be one of the warmest years ever recorded, the gap between scientific reality and political action has never been wider. The latest data serves as a critical call to action for leaders at COP30 and beyond to implement policies that can finally bend the emissions curve downward.
For further information, visit exeter.ac.uk
About University of Exeter:
The University of Exeter is a public research university in Exeter, Devon, South West England, United Kingdom. It is a member of the Russell Group of leading research-intensive UK universities and is recognized for its high-quality research and teaching, particularly in fields related to environmental science and climate change.
For further information, visit cicero.oslo.no
About CICERO:
The Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) is an interdisciplinary research center for climate research located in Oslo, Norway. It is a leading institute in the field of climate science, policy, and economics, providing knowledge that helps to inform public debate and decision-making processes.
For further information, visit newclimate.org
About NewClimate Institute:
The NewClimate Institute is a non-profit organization that supports research and implementation of action against climate change around the globe. It is committed to delivering a wide range of high-quality research and is involved in international climate negotiations and the development of national and international climate policies.
For further information, visit earth-system-science-data.net
About Earth System Science Data:
Earth System Science Data (ESSD) is a peer-reviewed open-access scientific journal dedicated to the publication of articles on original research data. It focuses on ensuring that data is well-described and accessible, promoting the reuse of valuable data sets in the Earth sciences.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica has established itself as a premier legal practice, built upon a bedrock of professional excellence and uncompromising integrity. The firm consistently pioneers modern legal solutions while drawing upon a rich history of advising a diverse clientele. This profound commitment extends beyond its clients, aiming to fortify the community by championing legal literacy and fulfilling its vision of a knowledgeable and empowered society.
