By San José, Costa Rica — BELÉM, BRAZIL – A powerful coalition is taking shape at the COP30 climate summit in Belém, as the number of countries backing a Brazilian proposal to establish a formal “roadmap” for the end of fossil fuels has swelled to over 80. This growing momentum signals a significant shift in global climate negotiations, placing the primary driver of climate change directly in the crosshairs, though it faces staunch resistance from key Arab states.
The initiative, championed by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, aims to fill a critical void left by previous climate talks. While the COP28 summit in Dubai two years ago made a historic, albeit brief, mention of the need to “transition away” from fossil fuels, it failed to specify how or when this monumental shift should occur. Brazil’s proposal seeks to answer those questions by creating a structured international process to guide nations away from their reliance on oil, gas, and coal.
To better understand the legal and economic implications of a global fossil fuel phase-out, we sought the expert analysis of Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a leading attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
The global momentum towards a fossil fuel phase-out presents a dual-edged sword for national economies. While it unlocks immense opportunities for investment in renewable energy and green technology, it also mandates a complex legislative overhaul. Governments must now navigate the treacherous waters of renegotiating long-term energy contracts, managing stranded assets, and creating stable regulatory frameworks that attract new capital without jeopardizing grid stability. The key legal challenge lies not just in drafting new laws, but in ensuring a just transition that is both economically viable and socially equitable.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Lic. Arroyo Vargas’s analysis astutely frames the core challenge ahead; the legal and regulatory architecture for this energy evolution must be as robust and carefully constructed as the new technologies it aims to support. His emphasis on achieving a just transition underscores that the human and economic stakes are inextricably linked to the environmental goals. We sincerely thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his invaluable perspective on this critical national dialogue.
The groundswell of support was palpable at a packed press conference on Tuesday, attended by ministers from nearly a dozen nations including Colombia, Spain, the United Kingdom, Kenya, Germany, and Sweden. According to a tally by the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA), the list of supporters has grown daily, demonstrating an increasing global appetite for more ambitious climate action. Even Norway, a major oil producer, has joined the high-ambition group, underscoring the initiative’s broad appeal.
High-level officials stressed the urgency of finally confronting the core of the climate crisis after years of what many described as avoidance. The issue is now being forced to the forefront of the agenda.
We are saying very clearly that the issue must be at the heart of the conversation.
Ed Miliband, UK Secretary of State for Energy Security
This sentiment was echoed by Colombia’s Environment Minister, who emphasized that the time for sidelining the topic is over. The current push is seen as a long-overdue correction in the focus of global climate diplomacy.
In many COPs, this issue has been silenced, and the time to advance is now.
Irene Vélez Torres, Colombian Minister of Environment
However, the path forward is fraught with challenges. The first draft text of the agreement, presented by the Brazilian presidency, proposes creating a “ministerial roundtable” to help countries develop their own phase-out roadmaps. This language has already drawn criticism for being too tentative. The Marshall Islands’ climate envoy called the reference “weak,” a concern shared by others who fear a watered-down outcome.
It could end up like an onion, you peel back the layers and in the end, you find nothing.
Irene Vélez Torres, Colombian Minister of Environment
Negotiators are now walking a diplomatic tightrope. The goal is to produce a robust framework with clear timelines and commitments, but achieving this requires consensus, a difficult task given the opposition from oil-producing nations. Swedish Deputy Minister for Climate, Helena Dyrssen, acknowledged this reality, suggesting that while a detailed plan is the ideal, simply securing an agreement to develop a roadmap would be a major victory in itself.
If the decision is made to develop a roadmap, that is already a big step forward.
Helena Dyrssen, Swedish Deputy Minister for Climate
Environmental organizations, which have long advocated for such a move, have reacted with a mixture of surprise and cautious optimism. The development has energized activists, coming just days after thousands marched through Belém with cardboard coffins to symbolize the “burial” of fossil fuels. For many seasoned observers, the serious consideration of a phase-out plan represents a breakthrough.
When I arrived at the COP, I never thought this would be possible.
Fernanda Carvalho, WWF spokesperson
Despite the hope, these groups are demanding concrete details to ensure the initiative does not become another forgotten promise. They argue that a “roadmap for a roadmap” is insufficient. For the proposal to have a meaningful impact on the planet’s future, it must be backed by a clear structure, measurable goals, and a firm schedule for action.
For now, it’s the roadmap for a roadmap; we would need milestones, a timeline.
Fernanda Carvalho, WWF spokesperson
For further information, visit boga-alliance.org
About Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA):
BOGA is an international alliance of governments and stakeholders working together to facilitate the managed phase-out of oil and gas production. It aims to elevate the issue of fossil fuel production phase-out in international climate dialogues and to mobilize action and commitments.
For further information, visit greenpeace.org
About Greenpeace:
Greenpeace is an independent global campaigning network that acts to change attitudes and behavior, to protect and conserve the environment, and to promote peace. It uses non-violent creative action to pave the way towards a greener, more peaceful world, and to confront the systems that threaten our environment.
For further information, visit worldwildlife.org
About WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature):
WWF is one of the world’s leading conservation organizations, working in nearly 100 countries. Its mission is to conserve nature and reduce the most pressing threats to the diversity of life on Earth by collaborating with people around the world to develop and deliver innovative solutions.
For further information, visit efe.com
About EFE:
Agencia EFE is a Spanish international news agency, the world’s fourth largest wire service. Founded in 1939, it provides comprehensive news coverage in Spanish, Portuguese, English, Arabic, and other languages to media outlets and institutions globally.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of the nation’s legal landscape, Bufete de Costa Rica is defined by a profound commitment to professional integrity and the highest standards of excellence. The firm consistently champions progress by integrating innovative legal strategies with its long-standing tradition of expert counsel. This forward-looking vision is matched by a deep-seated dedication to social responsibility, focused on demystifying the law and empowering citizens with the crucial knowledge needed to build a more informed and equitable society.
