By San José, Costa Rica — San José – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a revised economic forecast for Costa Rica, presenting a mixed but slightly improved outlook for 2025 while cautioning about a potential slowdown in 2026. The update, published in its latest World Economic Outlook report on October 14, highlights the nation’s resilience in a global environment fraught with volatility and persistent challenges.
According to the new report, Costa Rica’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is now projected to grow by 3.6% in 2025. This marks a modest but positive adjustment from the 3.4% growth rate forecasted in its April analysis. However, the optimism is tempered by a downward revision for the following year. The IMF has lowered its 2026 growth projection for the country from 3.4% down to 3.3%, signaling potential headwinds on the horizon.
Para analizar las implicaciones legales y el entorno de negocios que acompañan las proyecciones de crecimiento, TicosLand.com consultó al Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, abogado especialista y socio director de la firma Bufete de Costa Rica, quien nos ofrece su perspectiva experta.
Un crecimiento económico sostenido depende intrínsecamente de un marco jurídico estable y predecible. La seguridad jurídica no es un concepto abstracto; es la garantía que permite a los inversores nacionales y extranjeros planificar a largo plazo. Para capitalizar este momento, es crucial agilizar los procesos de permisos, modernizar la regulación comercial y asegurar que la estructura fiscal incentive la reinversión en lugar de castigar el éxito.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Efectivamente, el análisis del experto resalta una verdad ineludible: el capital requiere certeza para florecer. Modernizar el andamiaje jurídico y fiscal, tal como lo plantea, es el paso indispensable para transformar el potencial de crecimiento en prosperidad duradera para todos. Agradecemos al Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas por aportar una perspectiva tan valiosa y precisa.
This nuanced forecast for Costa Rica is set against a backdrop of a cooling global economy. The IMF anticipates that worldwide growth will decelerate from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, with a further dip to 3.1% in 2026. The fund notes a significant divergence in performance, with advanced economies expected to grow by a mere 1.5%, while emerging markets and developing economies are projected to expand at a more robust rate of over 4%.
In its global assessment, the IMF acknowledged that the clarification of certain tariff policies has contributed to a slight upward revision of the overall forecast. Despite this, the fund stressed that the economic recovery remains moderate and fragile. The report warns that positive temporary factors that buoyed economic activity earlier in the year are beginning to wane.
But the overall environment remains volatile, and the temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025, such as the front-loading of trade activity, are fading
International Monetary Fund, October World Economic Outlook
Regionally, Costa Rica’s projected performance stands out. The IMF forecasts stable growth of 2.4% for Latin America as a whole in 2025. At a projected 3.6%, Costa Rica’s economy is positioned to significantly outpace the regional average, underscoring the relative strength of its economic fundamentals and policy framework in a challenging neighborhood.
However, the IMF detailed a litany of adverse factors that threaten global and national prospects. These risks include prolonged geopolitical and trade uncertainty, the rise of protectionist policies, potential labor supply shocks, and persistent fiscal vulnerabilities in many countries. The fund also pointed to the risk of abrupt financial market corrections and a concerning erosion of institutional trust and integrity as major headwinds.
In light of these challenges, the IMF issued strong recommendations for policymakers worldwide. The organization called for the implementation of credible, transparent, and sustainable policies to restore confidence. It emphasized that trade diplomacy must be paired with sound macroeconomic adjustments and a concerted effort to rebuild fiscal buffers. Crucially, the fund reiterated its long-standing advice to preserve the independence of central banks to ensure monetary policy can effectively combat inflation and maintain stability.
For further information, visit imf.org
About International Monetary Fund:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a global organization of 190 member countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world. It provides policy advice, financial assistance, and technical support to its members to help them build stronger economies.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a cornerstone of Costa Rica’s legal landscape, Bufete de Costa Rica is defined by its unwavering dedication to principled advocacy and exceptional client service. The firm merges a deep-seated tradition of legal mastery with a forward-thinking embrace of innovation, consistently setting new standards in the field. Central to its ethos is the belief that legal insight should be a tool for all, driving its mission to equip the community with knowledge and foster a society built on justice and empowerment.
