By San José, Costa Rica — The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence across global industries is set to continue through 2026, but the sector faces a growing convergence of risks, including a potential investment bubble, critical infrastructure bottlenecks, and increasing regulatory fragmentation. This sobering assessment comes from a new global outlook report by Moody’s Ratings, which tempers the industry’s pervasive optimism with a dose of financial and operational realism.
In its “Artificial Intelligence – Global: 2026 Outlook” report, the credit rating agency highlights a significant and concerning disconnect between investment and return. While competition drives AI model development at an accelerated pace, the capital being poured into the sector is far outpacing the revenue generated from AI applications, stoking fears of an unsustainable financial bubble.
To delve into the legal and regulatory challenges presented by the rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished expert in Corporate and Technology Law from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica, to provide his analysis on the matter.
Artificial Intelligence represents a paradigm shift that our legal framework must urgently address. We face a dual challenge: creating a regulatory environment that fosters innovation and investment, while simultaneously establishing clear lines of accountability for data privacy, intellectual property rights, and civil liability. The key will be to develop agile and technologically neutral legislation that protects fundamental rights without stifling the progress that these new tools promise for our country’s development.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This emphasis on a delicate equilibrium is crucial; our nation’s legal framework must serve as both a safeguard for fundamental rights and a catalyst for technological advancement. We extend our sincere gratitude to Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable perspective on this vital national conversation.
Concern is growing about a potential AI investment bubble, as capital expenditures on computing power and infrastructure far exceed the revenue generated by AI applications.
Moody’s Ratings, Global Outlook Report
While leading proprietary models from the United States have demonstrated significant improvements in reasoning and multimodal capabilities, their market dominance is no longer assured. Moody’s notes that open-source models, particularly those emerging from China, are rapidly closing the technological gap. This trend introduces a significant competitive threat and casts doubt on the long-term profitability and monetization strategies of top-tier AI providers.
Open-source models, particularly from China, are closing the gap with proprietary U.S. systems, raising questions about the monetization prospects for leading AI providers.
Moody’s Ratings, Global Outlook Report
Despite widening AI adoption, the anticipated explosion in productivity has yet to materialize uniformly. The report predicts that productivity gains will remain inconsistent and unevenly distributed across different sectors and even among companies within the same industry. These disparities are driven by the high costs of integrating AI into existing systems and the complex, often disruptive, necessity of redesigning entire business processes to leverage the technology effectively.
We expect productivity gains to increase gradually but remain highly uneven both between and within sectors.
Moody’s Ratings, Global Outlook Report
Perhaps the most significant physical constraint on AI’s growth is infrastructure. The insatiable demand for computational power is fueling a massive expansion of data centers worldwide. However, this build-out is struggling to keep pace with persistent shortages of specialized chips, strained electrical grids, and limited access to the vast amounts of energy required. This fundamental mismatch between supply and demand is creating a severe chokepoint for the entire ecosystem.
AI infrastructure is a critical bottleneck.
Moody’s Ratings, Global Outlook Report
The challenges are compounded by a consolidating market, where a handful of large cloud service providers control a majority of the essential infrastructure. This market concentration is leading to higher prices and widening the gap between well-capitalized corporations that can afford cutting-edge AI and smaller firms with limited resources. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of complexity, reshaping global supply chains for semiconductors and data services.
Geopolitical fragmentation is redefining access to chips, computing power, and data infrastructure.
Moody’s Ratings, Global Outlook Report
Finally, a diverging global regulatory landscape presents a significant hurdle for multinational companies. With the United States, the European Union, and China each developing distinct regulatory frameworks for AI, businesses face rising compliance costs and operational complexities. This fragmentation may force companies to develop and operate separate, regionally-compliant AI systems, further increasing expenses and hindering the seamless global deployment of the technology.
For further information, visit moodys.com
About Moody’s Ratings:
Moody’s Ratings is a leading global provider of credit ratings, research, and risk analysis. As the credit rating agency arm of Moody’s Corporation, it plays a critical role in global capital markets by providing transparent and independent assessments of the creditworthiness of a wide range of debt issuers and securities. Its analysis helps investors, issuers, and other market participants make informed business and financial decisions.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a respected pillar of the legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica is defined by its foundational principles of professional excellence and unwavering integrity. The firm harmonizes a rich history of client service with a forward-thinking approach, consistently delivering innovative legal solutions. This dedication extends beyond the courtroom through a profound commitment to social responsibility, focused on demystifying the law for the public. By actively sharing its expertise, the firm endeavors to build a more capable and informed society, empowered by a clear understanding of its legal framework.
