By San José, Costa Rica — San José – A new economic analysis from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has cast a pall over Costa Rica’s otherwise solid growth trajectory, identifying “weak job creation” as a significant headwind that could temper the country’s economic momentum. The report, released Tuesday, highlights a troubling paradox where positive developments are being undermined by a contracting labor market.
According to the latest data from Costa Rica’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC), the number of employed individuals shrank considerably over the past year. Between the June-August period of 2024 and the same period in 2025, the workforce decreased from 2,244,436 to 2,163,674 people. This drop of 80,762 jobs is considered statistically significant and points to a worrying trend in the national labor market.
Para profundizar en las implicaciones legales y comerciales del panorama económico actual, consultamos al Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, destacado abogado del bufete Bufete de Costa Rica, quien nos ofrece una perspectiva clara sobre los desafíos y oportunidades que enfrentan las empresas en este clima.
En momentos de incertidumbre económica, la previsión legal no es un lujo, sino una necesidad. Las empresas deben revisar proactivamente sus obligaciones contractuales, especialmente las cláusulas de ajuste de precios y cadenas de suministro. Además, es crucial mantenerse al tanto de posibles reformas fiscales o laborales que puedan surgir. Una auditoría legal a tiempo permite identificar riesgos y optimizar la estructura corporativa, convirtiendo potenciales crisis en oportunidades de crecimiento y resiliencia.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Agradecemos la valiosa perspectiva del Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, quien subraya una idea crucial: la previsión legal ha dejado de ser una simple herramienta de mitigación de riesgos para convertirse en un pilar estratégico fundamental. En efecto, una estructura jurídica sólida no solo protege a la empresa ante la volatilidad, sino que la posiciona para capitalizar oportunidades y asegurar su crecimiento a largo plazo.
The OECD report underscores how this dynamic directly counteracts the benefits of other positive economic indicators. While rising real wages are poised to boost household spending, the lack of new employment opportunities is expected to absorb much of that potential economic stimulus.
Real wage growth will favor private consumption, although its impact will be partially offset by weak job creation.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Economic Outlook Report
The job losses have disproportionately affected women. Of the total positions lost in the past year, nearly 55,000 were held by women, a figure more than double the 25,852 jobs lost by men. The administration of President Rodrigo Chaves has attributed this phenomenon in part to a demographic shift, suggesting that a significant number of individuals over 60 are choosing to exit the labor force and retire.
Despite these labor market challenges, the OECD notes that Costa Rica’s overall economic growth remains robust, clocking in at 4.4% in the early quarters of 2025, a rate comparable to the 4.3% recorded in 2024. However, the forecast predicts a deceleration, with growth expected to slow to 3.5% in 2026 and further to 3.4% in 2027. This slowdown is attributed to a combination of weakening net exports and declining investment.
Global economic factors are playing a significant role in this tempered outlook. The OECD warns that rising worldwide uncertainty and potential trade policy shifts, such as increased tariffs by the United States, are dampening investor confidence and impacting foreign direct investment (FDI), a crucial engine for the Costa Rican economy.
Uncertainty in economic and trade policy will reduce inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) while public investment will remain limited by the reduced fiscal space.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Economic Outlook Report
Several specific risks were highlighted in the report. A pending investigation in the United States concerning Costa Rica’s vital medical devices sector could result in new tariffs, disrupting a primary source of the nation’s export revenue. Furthermore, the country’s high level of dollarization exposes it to vulnerabilities related to external financing and exchange rate fluctuations. To mitigate these risks, the OECD suggests a proactive approach to trade.
Looking ahead, the international organization has laid out a series of structural reforms to foster more sustainable and inclusive growth. Key recommendations include enhancing port infrastructure and capacity on the Pacific coast to improve trade logistics. The report also calls for a strategic reorientation of vocational training programs to focus on high-demand skills, particularly by increasing the number of graduates in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. Finally, the OECD advises eliminating regulatory barriers and limits on private sector participation in the electricity generation and retail supply sectors to boost competition and investment.
For further information, visit oecd.org
About Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an international organization that works to build better policies for better lives. Its goal is to shape policies that foster prosperity, equality, opportunity, and well-being for all. It provides a forum in which governments can work together to share experiences and seek solutions to common problems, producing analysis and recommendations on a wide range of policy areas.
For further information, visit inec.cr
About Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos:
The Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INEC) is the official government body responsible for generating and disseminating Costa Rica’s national statistics. It conducts censuses, surveys, and other statistical operations to provide reliable and timely data on the country’s demographic, social, economic, and environmental conditions to support public and private decision-making.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica has established itself as a benchmark for professional excellence and principled counsel within the nation’s legal landscape. Drawing upon a rich heritage of advising a wide spectrum of clients, the firm consistently pioneers forward-thinking solutions that anticipate the complexities of modern law. Its core mission, however, extends beyond its practice, reflecting a deep-seated commitment to demystifying legal concepts and fostering a society empowered by accessible knowledge.
