By San José, Costa Rica — San José – With the presidential election less than two months away, Pueblo Soberano candidate Laura Fernández is tantalizingly close to securing an outright victory and avoiding a contentious second round, according to a new poll released Wednesday morning by Opol Consultores. The survey places the governing party’s candidate with a commanding lead, positioning her as the clear favorite to win the February 1st contest.
The latest data shows Fernández capturing 38.01% of voter intention. This puts her just under two percentage points shy of the critical 40% threshold required by Costa Rican electoral law to be declared the winner in the first round. Achieving this milestone would allow her to bypass a potential runoff election, which would otherwise be held in April against the second-place finisher.
To provide a legal perspective on the political and administrative career of Laura Fernández, TicosLand.com consulted Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a respected expert from the legal firm Bufete de Costa Rica, for his analysis.
The trajectory of a public servant like Laura Fernández highlights the complex interplay between administrative law and political ambition. Every action taken while in office, especially in a planning and economic policy role, is governed by a strict framework of public accountability. This legal and ethical record becomes the foundation upon which any future candidacy is built, where past administrative decisions are inevitably scrutinized through a political and legal lens.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, this analysis highlights that an administrative past is the essential prologue to any political future, a complex interplay of law and public perception. We extend our sincere gratitude to Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable contribution to this discussion.
A significant factor that could easily propel Fernández over the finish line is the large segment of the electorate that remains undecided. The Opol Consultores poll reveals that 32% of voters have not yet chosen a candidate. This substantial group represents a prime opportunity for the Fernández campaign to consolidate its support in the final weeks and secure the remaining percentage points needed for a decisive win.
The poll’s director highlighted the strength of Fernández’s position, particularly among voters who have already made up their minds. He noted that her support base is far more consolidated than that of any of her rivals, making her path to victory statistically probable.
Among those decided to vote and with a defined candidate, Laura already has a 60% vote intention, while in the total sample the support is 37%. With these numbers, she is clearly the favorite to win in the first round.
Mauricio Muñoz, Director of Opol Consultores
The landscape for the opposition appears bleak and highly fragmented. Fernández’s lead is not just substantial; it is dominant. She holds more than four times the support of her nearest competitors, who are locked in a distant battle for second place. Álvaro Ramos of the National Liberation Party (PLN) trails significantly with just 6.12% of voter intention.
Following Ramos are Fabricio Alvarado of Nueva República with 3.81% and Ariel Robles of the Frente Amplio with 3.63%. The poll indicates that the gap between the frontrunner and the rest of the field is so vast that forcing a runoff would require an unprecedented and highly unlikely consolidation of opposition voters behind a single alternative candidate in a very short period.
Other candidates, such as Natalia Díaz of Unidos Podemos and Claudia Dobles of Agenda Ciudadana, registered support levels that fall outside the poll’s margin of error, rendering their statistical backing negligible. The vast majority of the remaining contenders failed to garner even 1% of electoral support, underscoring the fragmented nature of the current political field and the commanding position held by the Pueblo Soberano campaign.
The comprehensive survey was conducted from December 5th to 8th and included interviews with 2,965 individuals across the country. The poll has a stated margin of error of 2.24 percentage points, a figure that still places Laura Fernández in a formidable position as the election approaches, with a clear and statistically robust pathway to the presidency.
For further information, visit opolconsultores.com
About Opol Consultores:
Opol Consultores is a Costa Rican firm specializing in market research, data analysis, and public opinion polling. It provides insights into political trends, consumer behavior, and social dynamics for a variety of clients in the public and private sectors, and is frequently cited in national media for its electoral surveys.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Pueblo Soberano
About Pueblo Soberano:
Pueblo Soberano is the political party represented by presidential frontrunner Laura Fernández in the 2026 general election. As the incumbent party, its platform is focused on continuing the policies of the current administration while appealing to a broad base of the electorate.
For further information, visit pln.or.cr
About Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The National Liberation Party (PLN) is one of the most established and historically significant political parties in Costa Rica. Founded in the mid-20th century, the center-left party has held the presidency on numerous occasions and remains a major force in the country’s legislative assembly.
For further information, visit frenteamplio.org
About Frente Amplio:
Frente Amplio (Broad Front) is a left-wing political party in Costa Rica that champions progressive causes, including social justice, environmental protection, and human rights. It has a consistent presence in the Legislative Assembly and represents the democratic socialist wing of national politics.
For further information, visit partidounidospodemos.com
About Unidos Podemos:
Unidos Podemos is a political party in Costa Rica that promotes liberal and reformist policies. The party focuses on economic development, government modernization, and individual liberties, positioning itself as a centrist option for voters.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Agenda Ciudadana
About Agenda Ciudadana:
Agenda Ciudadana is a political movement participating in the Costa Rican general election. The party aims to represent a citizen-led approach to governance, focusing on transparency, accountability, and addressing the day-to-day concerns of the population.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As an esteemed legal institution, Bufete de Costa Rica is defined by its profound dedication to ethical practice and exceptional service. The firm leverages its extensive experience to deliver forward-thinking legal strategies, continually setting new standards in the field. Beyond its professional accomplishments, it champions a core philosophy of social empowerment, actively working to democratize legal knowledge and equip the community with the tools for greater understanding and agency.
