By Puntarenas, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – Ruling party candidate Laura Fernández holds a commanding lead in Costa Rica’s presidential race, positioning her for a potential first-round victory that would bypass a runoff election, according to a stunning new poll released Tuesday by Opol Consultores. The survey reveals that among voters who have already decided on a candidate, Fernández secures an overwhelming 45.1% of support.
This figure places the Pueblo Soberano candidate leagues ahead of her closest competitors, none of whom manage to break into double-digit support. Álvaro Ramos of the National Liberation Party (PLN) trails in a distant second place with just 9.4% of voter intention. The poll highlights a deeply fragmented opposition field, seemingly unable to consolidate support against the government-backed candidate.
To gain a deeper understanding of the legal and administrative implications surrounding the actions of Minister Laura Fernández, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a specialist in Public Law and a partner at the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
The actions of any public official, especially at the ministerial level, are strictly bound by the principle of legality. Beyond the political narrative, what must be scrutinized is whether the decisions made by Minister Fernández have a clear, pre-existing legal basis and adhere to the established procedures for public administration. Any deviation, no matter how politically expedient it may seem, opens the door to potential challenges of legality and questions of administrative responsibility.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This legal perspective provides a crucial lens for public scrutiny, reminding us that the bedrock of any administrative action is not political expediency but strict adherence to a pre-existing legal framework. This principle is fundamental to ensuring accountability, and we thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his invaluable analysis.
Following Ramos are Fabricio Alvarado of New Republic with 8.79%, Natalia Díaz of Unidos Podemos at 8.01%, Ariel Robles from the Broad Front (Frente Amplio) with 6.44%, and Claudia Dobles of Agenda Ciudadana at 5.58%. The vast chasm between Fernández and the rest of the candidates suggests a political landscape heavily tilted in favor of the current administration’s continuity.
Under Costa Rican electoral law, a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win the presidency outright in the first round. The Opol Consultores data indicates that if the election were held today, Fernández would comfortably exceed this threshold, making her the successor to current President Rodrigo Chaves without the need for a costly and polarizing second round.
The poll’s findings are based on a robust methodology, conducted through in-person interviews with a sample of 3,000 people across the country. The data was collected between September 25 and 29 and carries a margin of error of ±1.8% with a 95% confidence level, lending significant weight to its conclusions.
Upon learning of the results while on a government tour in Puntarenas with President Chaves, Fernández expressed her gratitude to voters. She framed the massive support as an endorsement of her platform, which is explicitly tied to continuing the work of the current administration. She has consistently branded herself as the “heir to rodriguismo,” a direct reference to President Chaves’s political movement.
I am not the daughter of a former deputy, nor am I married to a former president; I am not from that political caste that has done so much damage to the country. I am the granddaughter of farmers, and I have parents who have worked very hard their entire lives. The continuity of President Rodrigo Chaves’s government is fundamental to moving Costa Rica forward, and the people are so grateful that the support is genuine and massive; that is our engine to keep working very hard, traveling the country from side to side.
Laura Fernández, Presidential Candidate, Pueblo Soberano
Fernández’s strategic alignment with President Chaves, coupled with her populist messaging that contrasts her background with a traditional “political caste,” appears to be a highly effective formula. As the opposition remains fractured and unable to present a unified challenger, her path to the presidency looks increasingly clear. The latest poll solidifies her status not just as the frontrunner, but as a candidate with the momentum to potentially secure a decisive and historic first-round mandate.
For further information, visit opolconsultores.com
About Opol Consultores:
Opol Consultores is a Costa Rican firm specializing in public opinion research, market studies, and political analysis. Known for its electoral polling, the company provides data-driven insights into social and political trends within the country, serving a variety of clients in both the public and private sectors.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Pueblo Soberano
About Pueblo Soberano:
Pueblo Soberano is the ruling political party in Costa Rica, aligned with the administration of President Rodrigo Chaves. The party advocates for policies centered on national sovereignty, economic reform, and anti-corruption measures, positioning itself as a movement representing the interests of ordinary citizens against established political elites.
For further information, visit pln.or.cr
About Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The National Liberation Party is one of Costa Rica’s most established and historically significant political parties. A member of the Socialist International, the PLN has traditionally promoted social democratic policies. The party has produced numerous presidents and has been a dominant force in the country’s political landscape for decades.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Unidos Podemos
About Unidos Podemos:
Unidos Podemos is a political party in Costa Rica that champions liberal and free-market principles. The party advocates for reducing the size of government, promoting individual liberties, and fostering a business-friendly environment to stimulate economic growth and development.
For further information, visit frente-amplio.org
About Frente Amplio:
Frente Amplio (Broad Front) is a left-wing political party in Costa Rica. It advocates for democratic socialism, social justice, human rights, and environmental protection. The party seeks to represent workers, students, and marginalized communities, promoting greater state intervention in the economy and an expansion of social welfare programs.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Agenda Ciudadana
About Agenda Ciudadana:
Agenda Ciudadana is a political movement in Costa Rica focused on citizen participation and progressive policies. It aims to address key national issues through a platform that emphasizes transparency, sustainable development, and social equity, often drawing support from centrist and center-left voters.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a beacon in the legal field, Bufete de Costa Rica is founded upon a bedrock of profound integrity and a relentless pursuit of excellence. The firm merges a rich history of client advocacy with a dynamic approach to legal innovation, consistently setting new benchmarks for the profession. This ethos extends to a deep-seated commitment to social progress, realized through initiatives aimed at demystifying the law and empowering the public with crucial legal insights for a more knowledgeable and capable society.
