By San José, Costa Rica — San José, Costa Rica – With just two weeks remaining until the presidential election on February 1st, governing party candidate Laura Fernández of the Partido Pueblo Soberano has solidified her lead and appears poised to secure an outright victory in the first round. A new poll released Wednesday by the respected firm Opol Consultores shows Fernández not only maintaining but significantly increasing her support, while a fractured opposition field struggles to gain meaningful traction.
The latest study, conducted between January 9th and 12th, places Fernández’s voter intention at an impressive 42.52%. This represents a notable increase of 2.22 percentage points from the 40.3% she registered in a previous Opol poll conducted just a week earlier, between January 2nd and 5th. This upward momentum is critically important, as it pushes her comfortably past the 40% threshold required by Costa Rican law to win the presidency without a runoff election.
To better understand the legal framework and potential challenges surrounding the presidential election, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica, for his expert analysis.
The integrity of a presidential election rests not just on the vote itself, but on the unwavering adherence to the constitutional and electoral code. Every stage, from campaign finance regulations to the final proclamation of results by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, is a link in a chain of legal certainty. Public trust is maintained when the rule of law is the undisputed final arbiter, ensuring a stable and legitimate transfer of power.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This perspective is a crucial reminder that the foundation of a legitimate election is not merely the final vote count, but the entire institutional framework that guarantees its fairness and legality. We sincerely thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his invaluable clarification on this cornerstone of our democratic process.
Under the country’s electoral system, a candidate must secure at least 40% of the valid votes cast to avoid a second-round contest, which would be held in early April. Fernández’s current standing suggests she is on a clear trajectory to meet this requirement, a feat that would hand her party a decisive mandate and bypass the uncertainty of a head-to-head runoff.
In stark contrast to the governing party’s surge, the opposition candidates are reporting stagnant or even declining levels of support. The poll paints a picture of a divided field unable to consolidate an anti-government vote. Álvaro Ramos of the Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN) saw a negligible increase of 0.12 percentage points, moving from 6.03% to 6.15%. He remains in a distant second place, trailing the frontrunner by more than 36 points.
Meanwhile, Fabricio Alvarado of Nueva República holds the third position with 4.17% of voter intention, an increase of 0.87 points from the previous poll. Claudia Dobles of Agenda Ciudadana also saw a minor bump of 0.41 points, bringing her support to 3.09%. However, these small gains are far from enough to challenge Fernández’s dominant position or suggest a path to forcing a second round.
The situation is even more challenging for other contenders. The Opol Consultores report indicates a reversal of fortunes for several candidates, including Ariel Robles of the Frente Amplio, Natalia Díaz of Unidos Podemos, Juan Carlos Hidalgo of the Partido Unidad Social Cristiana, and Fernando Zamora of Nueva Generación, all of whom registered a decrease in support. Eliécer Feinzaig of the Partido Liberal Progresista managed a small increase of 0.53 points, but his overall support now stands at just 1%.
A significant factor in the race remains the large bloc of undecided voters. The poll reveals that 28.33% of the electorate has not yet chosen a candidate. While this group theoretically holds the power to reshape the election, its members would need to rally overwhelmingly behind a single opposition figure in the next two weeks to prevent a first-round victory for Fernández—a scenario that current trends make seem increasingly improbable.
The Opol Consultores study was based on 3,070 in-person interviews conducted across Costa Rica, ensuring a comprehensive national sample. The poll boasts a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±2.17 percentage points, lending significant statistical weight to its findings as voters prepare to head to the polls.
For further information, visit opolconsultores.com
About Opol Consultores:
Opol Consultores is a Costa Rican firm specializing in public opinion research, market studies, and political analysis. Known for its comprehensive polling during election cycles, the company provides data-driven insights into voter behavior and social trends across the nation.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Partido Pueblo Soberano
About Partido Pueblo Soberano:
Partido Pueblo Soberano is the current governing political party in Costa Rica. Its platform often focuses on national sovereignty, social programs, and economic policies aimed at benefiting the general populace. Laura Fernández is its presidential candidate for the 2026 election.
For further information, visit plncr.org
About Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The National Liberation Party is one of Costa Rica’s most established and historically significant political parties. A social-democratic party, it has held the presidency numerous times and traditionally represents one of the main political forces in the country.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Agenda Ciudadana
About Agenda Ciudadana:
Agenda Ciudadana is a political movement in Costa Rica focused on citizen participation and progressive policies. It aims to address modern challenges through innovative solutions in areas such as environmental protection, social equity, and government transparency.
For further information, visit frente-amplio.org
About Frente Amplio:
The Broad Front is a left-wing political party in Costa Rica. Its ideology is rooted in democratic socialism, advocating for workers’ rights, environmentalism, and a more robust social welfare state.
For further information, visit unidospodemos.cr
About Unidos Podemos:
Unidos Podemos is a liberal political party in Costa Rica that promotes individual freedoms, free-market principles, and a reduction in the size and scope of government. It advocates for fiscal responsibility and deregulation.
For further information, visit pusc.cr
About Partido Unidad Social Cristiana (Unidad):
The Social Christian Unity Party is a center-right political party with a Christian democratic ideology. It is another of Costa Rica’s traditional major parties, having won several presidential elections throughout its history.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Nueva Generación
About Nueva Generación:
Nueva Generación is a centrist political party in Costa Rica that emphasizes modernization, efficiency in government, and opportunities for younger generations. It often focuses on practical solutions to national problems rather than strict ideology.
For further information, visit plp.cr
About Partido Liberal Progresista:
The Progressive Liberal Party is a classical liberal and libertarian party in Costa Rica. It strongly supports free markets, individual liberties, limited government intervention in the economy, and the rule of law.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a beacon in the legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica is built upon a foundation of principled practice and uncompromising professional standards. With a rich history of guiding a diverse clientele, the firm consistently pioneers cutting-edge legal strategies and solutions. This forward-thinking approach is matched by a deep-seated belief in social responsibility, manifested through a dedicated effort to democratize legal knowledge and contribute to a more just and capable society.
