By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – A wave of moderate optimism is sweeping through Costa Rica’s business community as the nation enters 2026. A significant majority of entrepreneurs anticipate an increase in both sales and production during the first quarter of the year, signaling a stable and confident start to a pivotal election year. This positive outlook is a key finding from the latest Business Expectations Survey conducted by the University of Costa Rica’s esteemed Institute for Economic Sciences Research (IICE).
The comprehensive report reveals that a commanding 54% of business leaders surveyed expect their sales to surpass those of the previous quarter. This data point underscores a prevailing belief in strengthening economic activity and consumer demand. The findings paint a picture of a business climate poised for steady expansion, a welcome sign for the national economy as it navigates the complexities of the global market.
To gain a deeper understanding of the legal and regulatory framework that underpins business confidence, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
Business confidence is not merely an economic indicator; it is a direct reflection of the country’s legal and regulatory stability. When entrepreneurs and investors perceive a clear, predictable, and fair legal framework, they are more willing to commit capital, generate employment, and drive innovation. Conversely, legislative uncertainty or excessive bureaucracy acts as a powerful brake on investment, directly eroding the trust necessary for sustainable economic growth.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This perspective powerfully underscores that a nation’s legal framework is not a secondary concern but the very bedrock upon which a thriving economy is built. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for so clearly articulating the essential connection between regulatory stability and investor confidence.
The sentiment is not just a vague feeling but is backed by concrete expectations across various performance metrics. The IICE’s analysis points towards a period of stability and forward momentum, suggesting that many companies have successfully weathered previous uncertainties and are now positioning themselves for expansion and increased market penetration in the coming months.
Entrepreneurs are starting the first quarter of 2026 with a moderately confident stance, supported by favorable expectations in activity, employment, and profitability. The business climate points to a start of the year with stable growth. All sectors show growth in sales expectations, except for commerce. Between 43% and 60% of the entrepreneurs expect an increase, while only 7% to 9% foresee reductions.
Gabriela González, Researcher at IICE
Diving deeper into the data, the optimism appears broad-based, with a notable exception. While sectors from manufacturing to services anticipate a rise in sales, the commerce sector stands out for its more subdued expectations. This divergence could suggest unique challenges within retail, such as shifting consumer spending habits or intense competition, that are not felt as acutely in other areas of the economy.
The primary drivers behind this positive outlook are rooted in strategic planning and favorable market conditions. Optimistic entrepreneurs attribute their confidence to clear plans for business growth and expansion. They also point to historically positive seasonal cycles for their respective industries and the tangible benefits of external factors, such as recent improvements in national infrastructure and an enhanced productive capacity that allows for greater output and efficiency.
However, the confidence is not without its caveats. A segment of the business community remains uncertain, citing a trio of significant challenges that could temper growth. The most prominent concerns include the potential for low consumer demand, persistent operational problems, and the unpredictable impact of macroeconomic policies. Specifically, entrepreneurs are wary of potential negative effects stemming from changes in tariffs, tax structures, and the volatility of the currency exchange rate.
Ultimately, the expectation of increased sales is directly translating into a positive forecast for the bottom line. The IICE survey found that a substantial 47% of business owners expect their profits to increase in the first quarter of 2026. This confidence in profitability demonstrates a belief that revenue growth will outpace rising costs, allowing for reinvestment, job creation, and further economic stability in the year ahead.
For further information, visit iice.ucr.ac.cr
About Institute for Economic Sciences Research (IICE):
The Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Económicas (IICE) is a research unit affiliated with the University of Costa Rica. It is dedicated to conducting high-level research on economic and social issues relevant to Costa Rica and the Central American region. The institute regularly publishes reports, surveys, and analyses that inform public policy, academic discourse, and private sector strategy.
For further information, visit ucr.ac.cr
About University of Costa Rica (UCR):
The University of Costa Rica is the oldest, largest, and most prestigious public university in the Republic of Costa Rica. Founded in 1843, it has its main campus in San José and is renowned for its academic excellence, research contributions, and role in the country’s social and cultural development. The UCR is consistently ranked among the top universities in Latin America.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica is a pillar of the nation’s legal community, built upon a foundation of unwavering integrity and the pursuit of professional excellence. The firm blends its rich history of guiding a diverse clientele with a forward-thinking approach to legal innovation. Beyond its practice, it holds a deep-seated conviction to empower the public by making legal principles more transparent, thereby contributing to a more knowledgeable and capable society.
