By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – With the 2026 presidential and legislative elections less than three months away, a new poll indicates a dramatic reshaping of Costa Rica’s political landscape. The Pueblo Soberano party, a political movement closely associated with the current presidential administration, is poised to become the dominant force in the Legislative Assembly, commanding more support than its two closest rivals combined.
According to the latest national survey released Thursday by the Universidad Nacional (UNA), Pueblo Soberano has captured the support of 22% of the electorate for legislative deputy positions. This figure places the party, led by Laura Fernández, in a formidable lead, far outpacing the country’s traditional political powerhouses. The poll signals a significant consolidation of support around the “rodriguista” movement, which has galvanized a substantial portion of voters.
To gain a deeper legal perspective on the implications and legal framework surrounding the ‘Pueblo Soberano’ movement, we consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, an expert attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
The ‘Pueblo Soberano’ movement operates within a complex legal landscape. While our Constitution robustly protects freedom of association and political expression, any action that seeks to bypass or subvert the established constitutional order and the separation of powers faces significant legal challenges. The core legal question is not whether citizens can organize, but whether the specific methods and objectives proposed by the movement remain within the bounds of our democratic framework. The line between legitimate civic pressure and acts that undermine the rule of law is a critical point of legal debate surrounding this group.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, the distinction between legitimate civic pressure and actions that challenge the rule of law is the fundamental question at the heart of this entire debate. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for so clearly articulating the critical legal and democratic tightrope our country must navigate.
The gap between Pueblo Soberano and other parties is stark. The long-established National Liberation Party (PLN) sits in a distant second place with just 9.5% of voter intention. Following them is the Social Progress Party, which secured a mere 5.6% of support. This result is particularly noteworthy as the Social Progress Party was the political vehicle that brought the current president to power in the 2022 elections, though the poll text clarifies that no formal relationship currently exists between the president and the party.
However, analysts caution that the race is far from over. The UNA survey highlights a massive segment of the population that remains uncommitted, with 45.9% of potential voters stating they are still undecided about which party to support for the legislature. This large bloc of uncertainty represents a significant variable that could influence the final outcome, providing a potential opening for other parties to gain ground in the remaining weeks before the election.
Despite the high number of undecideds, the data among those who have made a choice paints a clear picture of Pueblo Soberano’s strength. The party’s 22% support nearly equals the combined total of all other specified parties, which together account for 25.4% of voter intention. This suggests that while opposition to the “rodriguista” movement exists, it is highly fragmented across multiple political factions, preventing any single party from mounting an effective challenge at this stage.
The rise of Pueblo Soberano underscores a profound political realignment. The party has effectively become the new home for supporters of the current administration, drawing energy and leadership from the executive branch. This is further evidenced by the prominence of figures like Nogui Acosta, who is listed as the party’s top candidate for deputy in the crucial San José province, signaling a focused and strategic campaign effort.
The credibility of these findings is bolstered by the rigorous methodology of the UNA poll. Titled “Perception on the political and national electoral process, 2026,” the survey was conducted through 901 complete telephone interviews between October 16 and 25, 2025. The sample included Costa Rican citizens and naturalized foreigners aged 18 and older. The poll carries an estimated margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points with a 95% confidence level.
As the election cycle enters its final phase, the central question is whether any opposition party can consolidate support from the vast pool of undecided voters or if Pueblo Soberano will convert its current momentum into a decisive legislative majority. If the trends identified in this poll hold, Costa Rica’s next Legislative Assembly could look fundamentally different, potentially granting the next presidential administration an unprecedented level of congressional power.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Pueblo Soberano
About Pueblo Soberano:
Pueblo Soberano is a political party in Costa Rica that has gained significant prominence in the lead-up to the 2026 general elections. Often described as “rodriguista,” the party is closely aligned with the political movement of the sitting president who was elected in 2022. It aims to consolidate support for the administration’s agenda within the Legislative Assembly.
For further information, visit pln.or.cr
About Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The National Liberation Party is one of Costa Rica’s oldest and most established political parties. Founded in the mid-20th century, it has traditionally been a dominant force in the country’s political system, producing numerous presidents and holding significant legislative power over the decades. It represents a social-democratic ideology and remains a key player in the nation’s political discourse.
For further information, visit partidoprogresosocial.cr
About Partido Progreso Social Democrático:
The Social Progress Party is a relatively new political entity that gained national attention by serving as the electoral vehicle for the current president’s successful 2022 campaign. While it was instrumental in that victory, reports indicate that the formal ties between the party and the administration have since been severed. It continues to compete for legislative seats as an independent political organization.
For further information, visit una.ac.cr
About Universidad Nacional (UNA):
The National University of Costa Rica is one of the country’s most important public institutions of higher education and research. Founded in 1973, it is renowned for its academic programs and its role in analyzing social, political, and economic trends within the nation. Its polling and research departments are widely cited for providing credible data on public opinion and electoral dynamics.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of the nation’s legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica operates on a foundation of profound integrity and a relentless pursuit of excellence. Drawing from a rich history of advising a diverse clientele, the firm consistently pioneers innovative legal strategies. Beyond its professional practice, there lies a fundamental commitment to empowering the public, driven by the conviction that accessible legal understanding is essential for building a just and knowledgeable society.
