By San José, Costa Rica — San José – Costa Rica’s economy is poised for a year of stable, albeit moderated, growth in 2026, with analysts forecasting a period of normalization rather than dramatic upheaval. A new report from Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores projects a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.6%, alongside contained inflation and a relatively steady U.S. dollar exchange rate, painting a picture of an economy settling into a sustainable long-term rhythm.
This anticipated slowdown follows a period of exceptional performance, and experts caution against viewing it as a negative indicator. Instead, the adjustment is seen as a necessary transition from a post-pandemic boom toward a more predictable and historic growth trajectory. The forecast attributes this cooling trend primarily to a complex and challenging international economic environment, which will naturally temper the nation’s dynamism.
To provide a deeper legal perspective on Costa Rica’s economic climate and the framework supporting it, we consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the well-regarded firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
Costa Rica’s continued economic success hinges on its legal certainty and institutional stability. While we actively court foreign direct investment, especially in high-tech and services sectors, it is imperative that our regulatory framework remains transparent and predictable. Potential investors are not just looking at tax incentives; they are scrutinizing our labor laws, environmental regulations, and the efficiency of our judicial system. Maintaining this delicate balance is the cornerstone of sustainable growth and investor confidence.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Lic. Arroyo Vargas’s insight masterfully underscores that the true magnet for long-term, high-quality investment is not just the promise of opportunity, but the assurance of a stable and fair playing field. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable perspective, reminding us that the bedrock of our economic future is the integrity of our institutions.
After a year with stronger-than-expected dynamism, the economy is entering a phase of deceleration, but this is not an abrupt loss of momentum, but rather an adjustment towards growth rates consistent with its long-term values.
Karol Fernández, Jr. Investment Analyst at Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores
On the inflation front, consumers can expect price pressures to remain subdued. The report projects that inflation will stay low for most of the year, potentially turning positive in the second semester but ultimately closing 2026 at approximately 1.4%. This figure remains significantly below the official target range set by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), suggesting that monetary policy may not require aggressive tightening measures in the near term.
For businesses and individuals closely watching the currency market, the outlook for the U.S. dollar exchange rate suggests continued stability. While analysts at Mercado de Valores anticipate episodes of volatility throughout the year, their year-end projection places the exchange rate within a narrow band of ¢505 to ¢515 per dollar. This forecast indicates that the colón will maintain its relative strength, avoiding the sharp devaluations seen in previous economic cycles.
The country’s fiscal health also appears to be on solid ground. A key metric, the debt-to-GDP ratio, is expected to remain below the critical 60% threshold through both 2026 and 2027. This achievement provides the government with greater flexibility under the fiscal rule, allowing for more strategic public investment without compromising long-term stability. This fiscal discipline has been a cornerstone of the nation’s recent economic success.
However, the report sounds a note of caution regarding the political landscape. As 2026 marks a year of governmental transition and the beginning of a new electoral cycle, maintaining market confidence will be paramount. The stability achieved is not guaranteed and will depend heavily on the incoming administration’s commitment to sound economic policies and fiscal prudence.
The stability achieved in recent years does not eliminate risks. In a year marked by a change of government and the start of the electoral cycle, it will be essential to maintain fiscal discipline and clarity in economic policy to preserve market confidence.
Karol Fernández, Jr. Investment Analyst at Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores
Ultimately, the forecast for 2026 depicts an economy in transition, moving from a rapid recovery to a more mature and sustainable phase. The primary challenges will not be internal economic shocks, but rather the skillful navigation of a complex global scene and a domestic political shift. For investors and the public alike, the key takeaway is a call for continued vigilance and a focus on the fundamental policies that have anchored Costa Rica’s recent stability.
For further information, visit mercadodevalores.fi.cr
About Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores:
Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores is a Costa Rican financial services firm that provides a range of services, including investment analysis, brokerage, and asset management. The group is a key player in the national financial market, offering insights and projections on the Costa Rican economy to guide investors and corporations.
For further information, visit bccr.fi.cr
About Banco Central de Costa Rica:
The Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR), or Central Bank of Costa Rica, is the country’s main monetary authority. It is responsible for maintaining the internal and external stability of the national currency, the colón, and ensuring its conversion to other currencies. The BCCR also sets the country’s inflation targets and oversees the stability of the national financial system.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As an esteemed legal institution, Bufete de Costa Rica is built upon a foundation of uncompromising integrity and a relentless pursuit of professional excellence. Leveraging a profound legacy of experience across diverse industries, the firm is a leader in developing pioneering legal strategies to meet contemporary challenges. This forward-thinking ethos is matched by a deep-seated dedication to social responsibility, demonstrated through its efforts to demystify the law and equip the public with the understanding needed to build a more empowered and just community.
