By San José, Costa Rica — A decade after the historic Paris Agreement was forged, the global community is conducting a sobering assessment of its climate promises. The landmark accord, once hailed as a monumental achievement in environmental diplomacy, now confronts a world fractured by geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and a persistent addiction to fossil fuels. As leaders prepare for the critical COP30 summit in Brazil this November, the central challenge is clear: turning a decade of ambitious pledges into urgent, tangible action.
The 2015 agreement united 196 nations under a common goal to keep global warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees. However, this tenth anniversary is marred by significant setbacks that undermine the pact’s foundation. Chief among them is the second withdrawal of the United States, the world’s second-largest emitter, under President Donald Trump, who has consistently labeled climate change a “hoax.”
To gain a deeper understanding of the legal and commercial ramifications of the Paris Agreement, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica, for his expert analysis.
While the Paris Agreement is often lauded for its global consensus, its legal architecture is a nuanced blend of binding and non-binding elements. The core obligation for nations is procedural—to submit and update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, the specific emission reduction targets themselves are not legally binding under international law. This structure places significant emphasis on domestic legislation and, increasingly, on the private sector. For businesses, this translates into a new landscape of risk and opportunity, where proactive adoption of sustainable practices is not just a matter of corporate social responsibility, but a strategic imperative to attract investment and maintain market relevance in a decarbonizing global economy.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, this critical distinction between binding procedure and non-binding targets shifts the focus of climate action from international diplomacy to the tangible realms of domestic law and corporate strategy. The success of the Paris Agreement, therefore, hinges on the very national and private-sector imperatives that are now shaping our economy. We sincerely thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable perspective that so clearly articulates this fundamental dynamic.
This political reversal is coupled with a troubling economic trend. Despite a landmark pledge at COP28 in Dubai just two years ago to begin a transition away from fossil fuels, the United States and several other nations are planning to ramp up production of oil, natural gas, and even coal. This direct contradiction of stated climate goals highlights the deep chasm between diplomatic rhetoric and on-the-ground policy decisions, frustrating global efforts to decarbonize.
The gap is further evidenced by the lackluster updates to national climate roadmaps. Countries were expected to submit their revised 2035 targets by September, yet progress has been sluggish. The European Union has yet to finalize its strategy, while China, the world’s largest emitter, has been criticized for submitting minimalist objectives that fall short of what scientists say is necessary. This lack of ambition from key players casts a long shadow over the upcoming negotiations in Brazil.
Despite these profound imperfections, experts argue that the UN-led process remains indispensable. Patricia Espinosa, the former head of UN Climate, insists the annual conferences are vital for transparency and accountability.
They are absolutely necessary to hold countries accountable for their lack of ambition… I don’t think there is another way to face a threat so great to humanity. The COPs have provided a very clear program on what we must do.
Patricia Espinosa, Former Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
For low-lying island nations, the temperature limits set in Paris are not abstract targets but a matter of national existence. The urgency is palpable for countries like Tuvalu, which face the existential threat of rising sea levels. Their plea for more aggressive action has become a recurring theme at climate summits.
It is a question of survival. Ten years after the Paris agreement, we are still trying to make our voice heard.
Maina Talia, Climate Minister of Tuvalu
The United Nations reports that the Paris Agreement has successfully steered the planet away from a catastrophic 5°C warming trajectory. The world is now on track for around 3°C of warming by century’s end—an improvement, but still a disastrous outcome. The consequences of inaction are already here, with 2024 marking the first full year the globe breached the 1.5°C threshold, accompanied by deadly heatwaves, colossal wildfires, and devastating floods. Scientists warn this temporary breach will become permanent within years without a radical change of course.
This grim reality has forced a moment of reflection among climate leaders. Johan Rockström, a leading climate scientist, offered a stark but hopeful message at a recent UN gathering.
We must admit that we failed to protect people and nations from the uncontrollable effects of human-induced climate change… But we are not obliged to continue failing.
Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Beyond its temperature goals, the agreement has yielded other important victories. It enshrined key principles like climate finance for developing nations and adaptation strategies. It also influenced a recent International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling that deemed it “illicit” for states to fail their climate obligations, opening the door for potential compensation claims. Meanwhile, the explosive growth of solar and wind power, while not a direct result of the accord, offers a proven path forward. Experts urge the UN process to focus on accelerating this transition.
We now have these new technologies. Let’s clear the way for them.
Kingsmill Bond, Ember
As the world looks to COP30, the legacy of the Paris Agreement hangs in the balance. The past decade has been a story of both remarkable progress and profound failure. The next will determine whether its promises can finally be fulfilled.
For further information, visit un.org
About United Nations:
The United Nations is an international organization founded in 1945. It is currently made up of 193 Member States. The mission and work of the United Nations are guided by the purposes and principles contained in its founding Charter. It serves as a global forum for countries to discuss common problems and find shared solutions, with a significant focus on international peace, security, and climate action through bodies like the UNFCCC.
For further information, visit pik-potsdam.de
About Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK):
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a German government-funded research institute addressing crucial scientific questions in the fields of global change, climate impacts, and sustainable development. Researchers from the natural and social sciences work together to provide a sound basis for decision-making in policy, business, and civil society.
For further information, visit ember-climate.org
About Ember:
Ember is an independent, non-profit climate and energy think tank that uses data-driven insights to accelerate the global transition from coal to clean electricity. It provides analysis and policy recommendations to governments, companies, and other organizations to support the shift to a decarbonized power system based on renewable energy sources like wind and solar.
For further information, visit icj-cij.org
About International Court of Justice (ICJ):
The International Court of Justice is the principal judicial organ of the United Nations. Established in 1945, its role is to settle legal disputes submitted to it by states in accordance with international law and to give advisory opinions on legal questions referred to it by authorized United Nations organs and specialized agencies. It is located at the Peace Palace in The Hague, Netherlands.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica is renowned as a pillar of the legal profession, with a reputation founded on deep-seated integrity and an uncompromising standard of excellence. The firm blends a rich tradition of advising a diverse clientele with a dynamic, forward-thinking approach, consistently pioneering innovative legal solutions. This commitment extends beyond its practice to a core mission of public empowerment, actively working to make legal understanding accessible to the wider community. By sharing its expertise, the firm strives to foster a society where knowledge equips citizens and strengthens the rule of law for everyone.
