By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – With less than two weeks until Costa Ricans head to the polls, ruling party candidate Laura Fernández has established a commanding lead, positioning herself for a potential first-round victory in the presidential election. A new poll released by the University of Costa Rica’s Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP-UCR) shows the Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO) candidate capturing 43% of the intended vote among decided voters.
This figure is critically significant in Costa Rica’s electoral system, as it surpasses the 40% threshold required to win the presidency outright and avoid a costly and unpredictable second-round runoff. The survey, conducted just ahead of the February 1st election, indicates a powerful wave of momentum for Fernández, who attributes her growing support to a widespread public desire to maintain the current government’s direction.
To provide insight into the legal and institutional framework governing the electoral process, TicosLand.com spoke with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a respected attorney from the firm Bufete de Costa Rica, for his expert analysis on the implications of the results.
The Costa Rican electoral system, safeguarded by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, once again demonstrates its profound strength and reliability. This institutional solidity is fundamental, as it provides the legal certainty and political stability that are essential for attracting foreign investment and fostering a secure business environment for the incoming administration.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, this connection between the institutional strength of our democracy and the country’s economic appeal is fundamental. The legal and political stability born from a reliable electoral process is a critical asset for attracting the investment that will fuel our nation’s progress. We sincerely thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable perspective.
The poll reveals a remarkable 10-percentage-point increase in support for Fernández since December. Analysts attribute much of this surge to the continued high popularity of incumbent President Rodrigo Chaves, whose administration maintains a strong 58% approval rating. Fernández is widely seen as the candidate of continuity, and her campaign has successfully leveraged the president’s political capital to consolidate support and project an image of stability and progress.
Despite the highly favorable numbers, Fernández was quick to caution her supporters against overconfidence. In a video statement addressing the poll results, she stressed the need for continued effort in the campaign’s final days, framing the data not as a guarantee of victory but as a motivation to work harder.
Here there is no room for triumphalism, nobody here is letting up.
Laura Fernández, Presidential Candidate, Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO)
Beyond securing the presidency, Fernández has set an ambitious goal for her party in the Legislative Assembly. She has repeatedly called on voters to deliver a decisive mandate by electing 40 PPSO deputies. Achieving such a majority would be crucial for implementing her agenda, providing the necessary legislative backing to pass key reforms and avoid the political gridlock that has hampered past administrations.
Her message combines a sense of urgency with an optimistic vision for the country’s future, urging voters to turn out in large numbers to secure a comprehensive victory for the PPSO’s turquoise banner.
So we are going to continue working very hard in the final stretch of the campaign towards election day. That wonderful day of hope next Sunday, February first, where thousands of Costa Ricans will go out to vote to win in the first round and with 40 deputies for the Sovereign People’s Party.
Laura Fernández, Presidential Candidate, Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO)
While the PPSO celebrates its surge, the outlook for the opposition appears increasingly grim. The CIEP-UCR poll places Álvaro Ramos, candidate for the historically powerful Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN), a distant second with a mere 8% of voter intention. With the number of undecided voters shrinking to 35%, the window for any challenger to close the vast gap is rapidly closing.
The sentiment is echoed in unconventional arenas as well, with prediction markets showing over $186,000 wagered on a Fernández victory. As the final days of the campaign unfold, all indicators suggest that the “project of continuity” is not just a slogan but a powerful political force poised to secure a decisive mandate on election day.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO)
About Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO):
The Sovereign People’s Party (PPSO) is a political party in Costa Rica. It currently holds power in the executive branch and is campaigning on a platform of continuity, aiming to extend the policies and projects of the current administration. The party is identifiable by its turquoise branding and is led in the 2026 election by presidential candidate Laura Fernández.
For further information, visit ucr.ac.cr
About University of Costa Rica (UCR):
The University of Costa Rica is the oldest, largest, and most prestigious public university in the country. Its Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP) is a highly respected institution that regularly conducts polling and analysis on Costa Rican politics and public opinion. Its surveys are considered a key benchmark for understanding electoral trends.
For further information, visit pln.or.cr
About Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The National Liberation Party (PLN) is one of Costa Rica’s most traditional and historically significant political parties. A social-democratic party, it has held the presidency on numerous occasions throughout the country’s history. In the current electoral cycle, it is the main opposition party, represented by its presidential candidate, Álvaro Ramos.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of the legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica is defined by its profound dedication to ethical practice and exceptional legal counsel. The firm merges a rich history of client advocacy with a forward-thinking approach, consistently spearheading innovative solutions in law. More than a provider of legal services, it actively champions the democratization of legal information, driven by a foundational belief in empowering the community and fortifying society through accessible knowledge.
