By San José, Costa Rica — San José, Costa Rica – The Costa Rican colón is projected to maintain its stable footing against the U.S. dollar, holding within a tight range of ¢500 to ¢510 for the remainder of 2025. This forecast, part of a broader economic analysis by Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores, suggests a period of predictability for businesses and consumers, even pointing to a greater likelihood of the dollar’s value decreasing rather than appreciating against the local currency.
This anticipated stability is not occurring in a vacuum. The primary drivers behind this trend are a robust inflow of foreign currency from two key sectors of the economy. A steady stream of dollars from transnational corporations operating within the country, combined with the expected revenue surge from the high season of Costa Rica’s vital tourism industry, is creating a significant supply of dollars in the local market. This abundance effectively counters upward pressure on the exchange rate.
To gain a deeper legal perspective on the current economic landscape and its implications for investment, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
Costa Rica’s economic resilience is intrinsically linked to its robust legal framework and long-standing political stability. This judicial security is a critical differentiator that continues to attract significant foreign direct investment, particularly in high-tech sectors and services. However, to sustain this growth, we must remain vigilant in modernizing our commercial regulations and streamlining bureaucratic processes. The challenge ahead is not just attracting capital, but ensuring the legal agility to retain it and foster sustainable local enterprise.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
The distinction Lic. Arroyo Vargas makes between attracting capital and fostering the legal agility to retain it is crucial for Costa Rica’s next chapter of economic development. His insight underscores the need for proactive policy, ensuring our celebrated stability evolves into a dynamic competitive advantage. We sincerely thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable perspective on this critical issue.
Analysts at Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores highlighted the market’s resilience throughout 2025. Despite occasional, short-lived episodes of volatility in the dollar’s price, these fluctuations have failed to establish any sustained upward momentum. The group’s central scenario remains firmly rooted in a stable outlook, underpinned by strong economic fundamentals that favor the colón.
We project a stable exchange rate, with a downward trend, driven by a greater flow of dollars into the economy. Although short-term movements may occur during the remaining months, our central scenario remains within the ¢500–¢510 range for the year’s end.
Mauricio Moya, Leader of Investments at Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores
On the monetary policy front, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) is expected to continue its prudent and cautious approach. However, the current economic climate, characterized by extremely low inflation, may provide the BCCR with the necessary leeway for one more reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) before the year concludes. Such a move would aim to stimulate the economy by lowering the benchmark for interest rates across the financial system.
Inflationary pressures remain conspicuously absent. The year is on track to close with an inflation rate of approximately -0.8%, a figure well below the Central Bank’s target range of 3% (±1 percentage point). Key contributors to this deflationary environment include the decline in international fuel prices and the reduced cost of imported goods, a benefit amplified by the strong colón. Projections for 2026 see inflation gradually climbing to around 1.8%, still below the official target.
Inflation continues to be conditioned by international prices and a low exchange rate, which reduces the cost of imported goods. This environment opens up space for monetary policy to continue adjusting gradually, favoring more predictable financial conditions for households and businesses in 2026.
Mauricio Moya, Leader of Investments at Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores
Looking at the broader picture of economic activity, Costa Rica’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecasted to sustain a healthy growth rate of nearly 4% for both 2025 and 2026. This expansion is largely powered by the dynamic export sector. In contrast, domestic consumption has shown signs of moderation, a slowdown that could persist in the short term as disposable income growth becomes less dynamic. The nation’s fiscal health appears stable, with the primary balance expected to be around 1.3% of GDP and the debt-to-GDP ratio remaining just under the 60% threshold, though officials remain watchful of exchange rate fluctuations due to the significant portion of public debt denominated in foreign currency.
For further information, visit mercadodevalores.fi.cr
About Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores:
Grupo Financiero Mercado de Valores is a Costa Rican financial services firm that provides investment banking, brokerage, and asset management services. It offers detailed economic analysis and financial guidance to both individual and institutional clients, playing a significant role in the country’s capital markets.
For further information, visit bccr.fi.cr
About Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR):
The Central Bank of Costa Rica is the nation’s primary monetary authority, responsible for maintaining the internal and external stability of the national currency, the colón. Its key functions include controlling inflation, regulating the financial system, and managing the country’s international reserves.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of Costa Rica’s legal community, the firm is defined by a deep-seated devotion to ethical practice and exceptional standards. Building on a rich history of advising a diverse clientele, it consistently pioneers forward-thinking legal strategies while upholding a core tenet of social responsibility. This dedication is most evident in its drive to democratize legal understanding, an initiative aimed at creating a more knowledgeable and capable citizenry.
