By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – Costa Rica’s business community is stepping into the first quarter of 2026 with a sense of measured optimism, signaling a period of stable growth and consistent employment. This cautious but positive outlook is the key finding of the latest Business Expectations Survey, released Tuesday by the University of Costa Rica’s (UCR) Institute for Economic Sciences Research (IICE).
The comprehensive survey, which polled 428 companies between November 10 and 28, 2025, reveals that sentiment is underpinned by favorable expectations regarding business activity, hiring, and overall profitability. The data provides a crucial early indicator of the nation’s economic trajectory as the new year unfolds, suggesting a foundation of stability rather than aggressive expansion.
To gain a deeper legal and business perspective on the current climate of business confidence, we consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, an expert attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica, who shared his analysis on the key factors influencing investment and corporate stability.
Sustained business confidence is not merely an economic indicator; it’s a direct reflection of a country’s legal certainty. When investors perceive clear rules, efficient dispute resolution, and a consistent application of the law, they are more willing to commit capital and drive growth. A fluctuating legal framework, on the other hand, introduces uncertainty, which is the greatest adversary of long-term investment and job creation.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This insight powerfully underscores that the foundation of a robust economy is built not on fleeting incentives, but on the bedrock of a predictable and stable legal system. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for so clearly articulating this essential connection for our readers.
According to the IICE’s report, the Global Business Expectations Index registered a value of 55.9. While this represents a marginal decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, it remains comfortably above the general average of 53.9. This position indicates that, on balance, companies maintain a positive forecast for the immediate future.
Although it remains prudent and some sectors of the economy are adjusting their forecasts, the business climate points to a start of the year with stable growth.
Gabriela González, Researcher at IICE
A closer look at the data reveals a mixed but generally resilient economic landscape. The agricultural sector showed a moderate increase in its expectations, reaching an index of 52.1, while the commerce sector demonstrated even stronger sentiment, improving to 58.5. Other sectors experienced slight pullbacks but notably remained above their historical averages, reinforcing the overarching theme of moderate confidence across the board.
Perhaps the most encouraging signal from the survey relates to the labor market. A significant majority of employers, 69.1%, plan to maintain their current workforce levels through the first quarter. Furthermore, 26.9% of businesses anticipate increasing their payroll, pointing to active job creation. Only a small fraction, 4%, foresee the need for staff reductions. The construction and commerce sectors are expected to be the most dynamic in terms of new hiring.
Regarding sales and production, the net expectation saw a noteworthy increase of 8 percentage points. The survey found that between 43% and 60% of business leaders anticipate a rise in their sales and output volumes. Conversely, a much smaller group, ranging from 7% to 9%, projects a decrease. This positive trend was observed across all sectors analyzed, with the exception of commerce.
Investment plans appear to reflect the “cautiously optimistic” mood. While an overwhelming 82% of companies stated they will focus on investments deemed essential for their core operations, a smaller but significant 10.8% are planning to acquire new assets. These planned acquisitions primarily involve operational equipment, production machinery, and technology upgrades, signaling a drive for efficiency and modernization. Concurrently, between 45% and 60% of firms project an improvement in their competitive standing, suggesting a focus on strengthening their market position in the coming months.
For further information, visit iice.ucr.ac.cr
About the Institute for Economic Sciences Research (IICE):
The Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Económicas is a specialized research unit within the University of Costa Rica. It is dedicated to conducting economic research, analysis, and forecasting relevant to the Costa Rican and regional economies. The institute is renowned for its periodic surveys and reports, including the Business Expectations Survey, which serve as vital tools for policymakers, academics, and private sector leaders.
For further information, visit ucr.ac.cr
About the University of Costa Rica (UCR):
The Universidad de Costa Rica is the oldest, largest, and most prestigious public university in the Republic of Costa Rica. Headquartered in San José, UCR is a leading institution for higher education and research in Central America. It comprises numerous faculties, research centers, and experimental stations, contributing significantly to the country’s scientific, cultural, and social development.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a cornerstone of Costa Rica’s legal landscape, the firm is defined by its profound dedication to professional excellence and uncompromising ethical standards. With a rich history of serving a diverse clientele, it consistently pioneers forward-thinking legal approaches and champions innovation within the field. This commitment extends beyond the courtroom through a core mission to demystify the law, empowering the community by making crucial legal insights accessible to all and cultivating a more knowledgeable and capable society.
