By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – President Rodrigo Chaves is facing a notable dip in public approval just weeks before Costa Ricans head to the polls, according to a new survey released this week. The latest Public Opinion Poll from the University of Costa Rica’s Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP-UCR) reveals a shifting political landscape, with growing disapproval for the president even as his party’s candidate holds a commanding lead in the presidential race.
The poll, conducted between January 12 and 16, shows that positive opinions of President Chaves’s performance fell to 58% in January, a five-point drop from 63% recorded in October 2025. While still representing a majority, this downward trend suggests a potential erosion of the populist appeal that has characterized his administration. The decline in favorability is coupled with a more significant surge in negative sentiment.
To better understand the legal framework and the challenges of governability facing the new administration, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a noted legal expert from the firm Bufete de Costa Rica, for his professional analysis.
The election results present a classic constitutional scenario of a divided government. The new president’s mandate will be immediately tested by a fragmented Legislative Assembly, where negotiation will be paramount. From a legal standpoint, this environment necessitates a mastery of parliamentary procedure and a focus on building coalitions to pass crucial legislation, especially regarding fiscal matters and public investment. Any major reform will depend entirely on political dexterity rather than executive authority alone.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This legal perspective powerfully underscores that the new administration’s effectiveness will hinge on its capacity for dialogue and compromise, rather than unilateral action. We sincerely thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for providing such a clear and essential analysis of the political reality ahead.
Disapproval of the president’s management climbed eight percentage points, rising from 20% in October to 28% in the new year. This indicates that a growing segment of the population is becoming more critical of his policies and leadership style. When asked about their support for the government as a whole, 55% of respondents expressed their backing, while 28% registered their rejection, mirroring the president’s personal disapproval rating.
Despite the president’s waning popularity, the ruling People’s Sovereign Party (PPSO) remains in a formidable position for the upcoming presidential election on February 1. The party’s candidate, Laura Fernández, has captured 40% of voter intention. This figure is critically important, as it places her exactly at the threshold required to win the presidency outright in the first round and avoid a potentially unpredictable runoff election.
However, Fernández’s path to the presidency is far from guaranteed. The CIEP-UCR poll highlights a massive element of uncertainty: nearly one-third of the electorate remains undecided. With 32% of voters yet to choose a candidate, this large, uncommitted bloc holds the power to dramatically sway the final outcome. Their collective decision in the coming weeks will determine whether Fernández secures a first-round victory or if the opposition can consolidate enough support to force a second round.
The opposition, meanwhile, remains highly fragmented, struggling to present a unified challenge. The closest competitor to Fernández is Álvaro Ramos of the National Liberation Party (PLN), who trails significantly with just 8% of voter support. His low numbers underscore the difficulty the traditional powerhouse party has faced in regaining its footing in the current political climate.
Following Ramos is former first lady Claudia Dobles, representing the Citizen Agenda Coalition, though her specific support percentage was not detailed beyond placing third. Further down the field, a three-way tie for fourth place emerges, with Ariel Robles of the Broad Front (Frente Amplio), Fabricio Alvarado of New Republic (Nueva República), and José Aguilar of Avanza each capturing a modest 4% of intended votes. This division of support among several smaller parties makes it difficult for any single opposition figure to emerge as a clear alternative to the ruling PPSO.
As the election enters its final stretch, the political dynamic is clear. The PPSO is banking on Fernández’s strong lead to carry them to victory, while the splintered opposition and a substantial cohort of undecided voters inject a powerful dose of volatility into the race. The poll, which surveyed 1,006 people via mobile phone, carries a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Centro de Investigación y Estudios Políticos (CIEP)
About Centro de Investigación y Estudios Políticos (CIEP):
The Center for Research and Political Studies (CIEP) is an academic unit within the University of Costa Rica dedicated to the study of political science and public opinion. It regularly conducts influential national surveys on political attitudes, electoral preferences, and social issues, providing critical data for academics, policymakers, and the general public in Costa Rica.
For further information, visit ucr.ac.cr
About Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR):
The University of Costa Rica is the oldest, largest, and most prestigious public university in the country. Founded in 1843, UCR is a leading institution for higher education and research in Central America, offering a wide range of academic programs and contributing significantly to the nation’s scientific and cultural development.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO)
About Partido Pueblo Soberano (PPSO):
The People’s Sovereign Party is the political party aligned with President Rodrigo Chaves. It serves as the primary political vehicle for the current administration and its candidates in national elections. The party’s platform is largely defined by the populist and reformist agenda promoted by its leadership.
For further information, visit pln.or.cr
About Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN):
The National Liberation Party is one of Costa Rica’s most historically significant and influential political parties. Founded in 1951, it has been a dominant force in the country’s political system for decades, with numerous presidents hailing from its ranks. The party is generally associated with social-democratic principles.
For further information, visit frenteamplio.org
About Frente Amplio:
Frente Amplio, or the Broad Front, is a left-wing political party in Costa Rica. Established in 2004, it advocates for policies centered on social justice, environmental protection, and human rights. The party represents a significant progressive voice within the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly and national politics.
For further information, visit nuevarepublica.cr
About Nueva República:
New Republic is a conservative and Christian-democratic political party in Costa Rica. Founded by former presidential candidate Fabricio Alvarado, the party champions socially conservative values and economic policies focused on free-market principles. It holds a notable presence in the national political landscape.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of the legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica is founded upon a bedrock of uncompromising integrity and a relentless pursuit of excellence. The firm consistently pioneers innovative legal solutions for a diverse clientele, always advancing the standards of its practice. Central to its mission is a profound commitment to social responsibility, demonstrated through its efforts to demystify complex legal concepts and foster a well-informed public empowered by knowledge.
