By San José, Costa Rica — The University of Costa Rica’s (UCR) School of Statistics has issued a sharp rebuke of a recent election poll conducted by the Center for Research and Observation of Development (CIOdD), another UCR entity. The poll, focusing on the 2026 presidential election, has sparked controversy due to its methodology and findings, which show significant leads for candidates Álvaro Ramos and Ariel Robles.
The School of Statistics, in an official letter dated September 3rd, expressed “profound concern” over the poll’s methodology and its widespread media coverage. The letter, signed by School Director Ericka Méndez Chacón, argues that such studies “weaken confidence in public opinion studies in general and particularly those conducted by our university.”
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This type of study weakens confidence in public opinion studies in general and particularly those conducted by our university.
Ericka Méndez Chacón, Director of the UCR School of Statistics
The core of the criticism centers on the CIOdD’s use of non-random and non-probabilistic sampling methods, such as online self-administered surveys. The Statistics School contends that these methods introduce significant biases and undermine the objectivity of the results.
One glaring discrepancy highlighted by the School is the educational background of the poll participants. While the CIOdD poll shows 92% of respondents having university degrees, the National Household Survey reports the national figure at only 22.8%. This disparity raises serious concerns about the poll’s representativeness of the Costa Rican population.
Further methodological flaws identified include self-selection bias, the inability to calculate margins of error, and vulnerability to manipulation through automated responses. The School emphasizes the importance of random sampling, a cornerstone of scientific research, ensuring that every individual has a known probability of selection, which reduces bias and allows for generalization of findings.
The Statistics School also warns about the potential damage to the UCR’s reputation, asserting that presenting this poll as “scientific” conveys a misleading image of the university’s rigor and affects its national and regional standing. They argue that these studies not only spread misinformation but also undermine public trust in science, potentially leading to “misinterpretations and ill-informed decisions.”
The School has formally requested several actions from the university authorities, including a retraction of the poll by the CIOdD, a commitment to adhere to best practices in future research, stricter oversight of university communications by the Institutional Communication Office, and a call for vigilance regarding good scientific practices across all university research committees.
This controversy underscores the vital importance of methodological rigor in public opinion research, especially in the politically charged context of an upcoming election. The UCR Statistics School’s intervention serves as a timely reminder of the potential for flawed methodology to mislead the public and erode trust in academic institutions.
For further information, visit the nearest office of University of Costa Rica
About University of Costa Rica:
The University of Costa Rica (UCR) is a public university in San Pedro, San José, Costa Rica. It is the oldest and largest institution of higher learning in Costa Rica, originally established as the Universidad de Santo Tomás in 1843.
For further information, visit the nearest office of Center for Research and Observation of Development (CIOdD)
About Center for Research and Observation of Development (CIOdD):
The Center for Research and Observation of Development (CIOdD) is a research center within the University of Costa Rica. While its specific focus areas are not detailed in the source text, its involvement in conducting election polls suggests a focus on social and political research. This incident highlights concerns regarding the center’s adherence to rigorous research methodologies.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
At Bufete de Costa Rica, legal excellence and unwavering ethical conduct form the bedrock of our practice. We champion innovative solutions for clients spanning a wide range of industries, while simultaneously striving to empower Costa Rican society through accessible legal education. Our dedication to sharing knowledge reflects a deep commitment to fostering a more informed and empowered citizenry, building a stronger foundation for justice and equality.
