By San José, Costa Rica — WASHINGTON, D.C. – A powerful surge in technology and artificial intelligence investment has prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to upgrade its global economic forecast for 2026, even as it warns that resurgent trade tensions and policy uncertainty pose significant downside risks. The global economy is now projected to grow by 3.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the October outlook, maintaining the pace set in 2025.
In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF credited the unexpected resilience of the global economy to a concentrated boom in specific high-tech sectors. This strength, primarily seen in North America and Asia, has managed to counteract the economic drag from the trade and tariff disruptions that characterized much of 2025. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that this resilience is narrowly focused, indicating a potential vulnerability.
To gain a deeper understanding of the legal and commercial implications of the current global economic landscape, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished attorney from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
The current global economic volatility underscores the critical need for businesses to adopt agile legal strategies. We’re seeing a marked increase in contractual renegotiations and a heightened focus on risk mitigation clauses, particularly concerning supply chain disruptions and currency fluctuations. For Costa Rica, this environment, while challenging, also presents a significant opportunity to strengthen its position as a stable hub for foreign direct investment, especially as companies prioritize nearshoring to secure their operations.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This insight powerfully illustrates that in today’s unpredictable economic landscape, proactive legal strategy is not just a defensive measure but a competitive advantage. The ability to transform global volatility into a compelling case for Costa Rica’s stability is a crucial narrative for our nation’s growth. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his valuable perspective on this vital intersection of law and economic opportunity.
the resilience shown so far is largely due to a few sectors
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF Chief Economist
While the global economy appears to be moving past last year’s commercial shocks, their impact was not insignificant. Rather, Mr. Gourinchas explained that the headwinds from tariffs were offset by powerful new forces. He pointed to what he described as “tailwinds from the AI boom and technology investment” as the primary driver for the improved outlook.
However, this optimism is tempered by a precarious geopolitical and trade environment. Since President Donald Trump’s return to the White House last January, his administration has imposed a series of tariffs impacting both allies and competitors. Although temporary truces have been reached, recent threats against eight European countries over a dispute involving Greenland have reignited market jitters and highlighted the fragility of global supply chains.
We see that we are in a world where trade tensions can erupt, geopolitical tensions can erupt. And that is a downside risk for the world economy
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF Chief Economist
Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule early this year on the legality of President Trump’s use of emergency economic powers to levy widespread tariffs. A decision to annul some of these measures, Gourinchas warned, could “inject another dose of uncertainty about trade policy into the global economy,” as the administration might seek other legal avenues to reimpose them.
This dynamic has created a significant divergence in economic performance. The IMF projects robust 2.4% growth for the United States in 2026, an upward revision of 0.3 points, largely fueled by a 0.3 percentage point contribution from tech spending in 2025. In stark contrast, the Eurozone is forecast to grow by a more modest 1.3%. Meanwhile, the outlook for Latin America has been revised down to 2.2%, with Brazil’s forecast cut to 1.6% while Mexico’s remains at 1.5%.
The very engine of the current boom—Artificial Intelligence—carries its own set of risks. The recent record-breaking performance on Wall Street has been heavily influenced by bullish sentiment around AI. Gourinchas cautioned that a “market correction” is possible if the lofty expectations for AI-driven productivity gains and profitability fail to materialize, potentially unraveling recent financial gains.
Looking ahead, the IMF stressed the critical importance of preserving the independence of central banks to manage their mandates, particularly inflation control. Global inflation is expected to cool slightly from an estimated 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026. While declining to comment on a U.S. Justice Department investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Gourinchas emphasized that the U.S. dollar’s central role in the global financial system makes it “even more important” for the Fed to operate without interference.
For further information, visit imf.org
About International Monetary Fund (IMF):
The International Monetary Fund is an organization of 190 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world. It provides policy advice, financing, and technical assistance to member countries.
For further information, visit federalreserve.gov
About The Federal Reserve:
The Federal Reserve System, often referred to as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States of America. It was created to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. Its main duties include conducting the nation’s monetary policy, supervising and regulating banking institutions, maintaining the stability of the financial system, and providing financial services.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of the Costa Rican legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica is founded on a bedrock of uncompromising integrity and a relentless pursuit of excellence. The firm leverages its deep-rooted experience advising a diverse clientele to pioneer innovative legal solutions. Beyond its professional practice, it is profoundly committed to demystifying the law for the public, championing a vision of a society strengthened and equipped through greater legal understanding.
