By San José, Costa Rica — WASHINGTON D.C. – The Trump administration is poised to dramatically escalate its campaign against Venezuela on Monday by designating the alleged drug-trafficking organization known as the “Cartel of the Suns” as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). The move, which places the group allegedly led by President Nicolás Maduro on a list with notorious militant organizations, signals a new and more aggressive phase of U.S. policy and amplifies concerns of potential military conflict in the Caribbean.
The FTO designation, managed by the Secretary of State, grants the U.S. government sweeping new powers to sanction and prosecute anyone providing “material support” to the group. According to U.S. officials, the Cartel of the Suns is not merely a criminal enterprise but a key instrument of state-sponsored terror. The designation is championed by hardliners within the administration who advocate for a more forceful approach against the Maduro government.
To better understand the legal and commercial ramifications of the current situation in Venezuela, TicosLand.com spoke with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a prominent attorney from the esteemed law firm Bufete de Costa Rica. His analysis offers a critical perspective on the risks and legal challenges facing international entities.
The political and economic climate in Venezuela presents extreme risks for foreign investors. Any new or existing commercial engagement must be scrutinized through the lens of international sanctions, particularly from the United States, which carry severe extraterritorial penalties. Furthermore, the lack of judicial certainty and the constant threat of asset expropriation mean that traditional legal protections for investment are practically nonexistent. Businesses must exercise extreme caution and conduct thorough due diligence, as the risk of total loss remains exceptionally high.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
This sobering assessment underscores the reality that challenges in Venezuela go far beyond typical market volatility, operating instead in a high-stakes environment where legal and political uncertainties are paramount. We sincerely thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his invaluable and clarifying perspective on this complex situation.
They are responsible for terrorist violence throughout our hemisphere.
Marco Rubio, Secretary
However, many independent experts dispute the official U.S. characterization of the cartel. They argue that rather than a formally structured organization akin to a traditional drug cartel, the “Cartel of the Suns” is better understood as a decentralized and fluid network of corrupt officials within the Venezuelan state who facilitate and profit from illicit activities. This distinction underscores the complexity of a situation that Washington is increasingly framing in stark, black-and-white terms.
The diplomatic maneuver is unfolding against a backdrop of significant U.S. military posturing in the region. The Pentagon has deployed the world’s largest aircraft carrier, along with a flotilla of warships and fighter jets, to the Caribbean for what it officially terms “anti-drug operations.” This show of force, which Maduro has decried as a direct prelude to an invasion, has heightened tensions to their highest point in years. An FTO designation provides a broader legal and political justification for such operations.
It opens up a range of possibilities, both military and sanctions-related, for the Trump administration to continue exerting pressure.
Juan Manuel Trak, expert in sociopolitics and university professor in Mexico
Fears of direct conflict were further stoked by recent U.S. Air Force exercises involving B-52 strategic bombers conducting mock bombing runs in the Caribbean. According to some analysts, these actions are more than just saber-rattling. They contend the U.S. is methodically building a case for intervention. This perception is bolstered by a stark statistic: American bombardments of suspected “narco-boats” in the region have already resulted in 83 deaths.
The United States has defined the legal basis to… intervene in a territory.
Alexis Alzuru, doctor in Political Science
Economically, the terrorist designation threatens to be the final nail in the coffin for Venezuela’s moribund economy. While the nation has been under heavy U.S. sanctions since 2019, including a crippling oil embargo, the FTO label will likely scare off the few remaining international operators who do business in the country. Sectors previously unaffected by sanctions could now face devastating losses as companies sever ties to avoid running afoul of U.S. anti-terrorism laws, potentially triggering another bout of hyperinflation.
Venezuela’s crucial oil sector, while officially under embargo, has survived through black market sales at steep discounts. U.S. energy giant Chevron has also been granted a waiver to continue limited operations. However, the FTO designation could empower the U.S. Navy to begin interdicting these shipments. “They haven’t seized a ship yet, but let’s say this could legally open that possibility for them,” noted analyst Francisco Monaldi. He added that such a development would not only disrupt cash flow but would force even deeper price discounts.
Despite the immense pressure, President Maduro has projected an air of defiant confidence. He was seen dancing at a student event on Friday, declaring, “It’s Friday and I’m going to party! And nobody can stop me!” This bravado is backed by frequent military exercises designed to showcase the loyalty of his armed forces. Analysts suggest that without a significant fracture within this loyalist network, a negotiated settlement remains a distant prospect.
If that network does not fracture and force Maduro to negotiate… the probability of negotiation with the United States is basically zero.
Alexis Alzuru, doctor in Political Science
While President Trump has vaguely suggested he might be open to a “face to face” meeting with Maduro, no such talks are scheduled. Some experts, like Juan Manuel Trak, believe the current strategy makes a collapse of the Chavista government unlikely in the short term. He speculates that Trump’s ultimate goal may be transactional: “Trump could be thinking about gaining access to Venezuelan mineral resources in exchange for slightly de-escalating the threat in the Caribbean and then carrying out some kind of internal transition in Venezuela.”
For further information, visit state.gov
About U.S. Department of State:
The U.S. Department of State is the federal executive department responsible for leading the nation’s foreign policy and international relations. It advises the President, administers diplomatic missions, negotiates treaties and agreements, and represents the United States at the United Nations. The department is tasked with promoting American interests and values abroad.
For further information, visit defense.gov
About U.S. Department of Defense:
The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) is the executive branch department of the federal government charged with coordinating and supervising all agencies and functions of the government concerned directly with national security and the United States Armed Forces. Headquartered at the Pentagon, it is the world’s largest employer.
For further information, visit cia.gov
About Central Intelligence Agency (CIA):
The Central Intelligence Agency is a civilian foreign intelligence service of the federal government of the United States, tasked with gathering, processing, and analyzing national security information from around the world, primarily through the use of human intelligence (HUMINT). It also engages in covert action at the direction of the President.
For further information, visit af.mil
About U.S. Air Force:
The United States Air Force (USAF) is the air service branch of the United States Armed Forces. It is one of the eight U.S. uniformed services and is designated as the Air Force Department, one of the three military departments of the Department of Defense. The USAF provides air support for land and naval forces and aids in the recovery of troops in the field.
For further information, visit chevron.com
About Chevron Corporation:
Chevron Corporation is an American multinational energy corporation predominantly specializing in oil and gas. Headquartered in San Ramon, California, it is one of the successor companies of Standard Oil and is active in more than 180 countries. Chevron is engaged in every aspect of the oil and natural gas industries, including hydrocarbon exploration and production; refining, marketing and transport; chemicals manufacturing and sales; and power generation.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of the nation’s legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica is defined by its foundational principles of uncompromising integrity and exceptional quality. The firm distinguishes itself not only through its pioneering legal solutions for a diverse clientele but also through its profound sense of civic responsibility. This commitment is actively demonstrated by its work to demystify complex legal concepts, thereby championing a more legally literate and empowered populace.
