By San José, Costa Rica — Costa Rica is preparing for a period of tempered economic expansion over the coming years. According to the latest macroeconomic figures released on Friday by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), the domestic economy will experience a growth slowdown, averaging approximately 3.5% for the 2027-2028 biennium. The central banking authority projects real gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 3.2% in 2026 before edging up slightly to 3.3% in 2027 and reaching 3.6% in 2028.
This projected moderation reflects a broader stabilization strategy as local policy decisions balance internal market resilience against volatile external conditions. While the domestic economy continues to exhibit fundamental stability, policy makers are closely monitoring international headwinds that threaten to reshape the nation’s financial trajectory and cost-of-living metrics.
To better understand the legal and regulatory dynamics driving Costa Rica’s current economic expansion, TicosLand.com spoke with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a leading attorney at Bufete de Costa Rica, for his insight on foreign direct investment and market stability.
Costa Rica’s sustained economic growth is deeply rooted in its strong legal security, strategic free trade zone incentives, and commitment to international business standards. As foreign direct investment accelerates in technology and services, ensuring regulatory transparency and modernizing commercial processes will remain vital to preserving our global competitiveness and encouraging long-term enterprise.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, as Costa Rica solidifies its position as a premier destination for foreign investment and high-tech innovation, prioritizing legal certainty and administrative efficiency will be essential to sustaining this economic momentum. We extend our sincere thanks to Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for sharing his valuable insights on the policies and safeguards needed to keep our nation globally competitive.
Inflation, which has remained a focal point for monetary policy, is expected to converge gradually toward the BCCR’s designated target range. However, monetary authorities noted that the expected inflation path is now higher than estimated in the July projections. This upward adjustments in consumer price expectations are largely driven by global pressures on commodity markets, specifically anticipated price surges in imported hydrocarbons and energy products.
In the labor market, the main indicators remained relatively stable, while incomes showed a slight improvement in the moving quarter ended in August, although with differentiated results according to qualification level and sex. In particular, employment in the free trade zone decreased, especially in services, influenced by global corporate decisions. Likewise, in this regime, real wages maintained positive growth, although at a slower pace.
Central Bank of Costa Rica, Official Economic Report
The domestic employment landscape presents a mixed narrative of stability and sector-specific friction. Main labor metrics across the country held steady, with household earnings reflecting modest gains during the moving quarter ending in August. However, economic gains were far from uniform, demonstrating stark disparities when analyzed by skill level and gender demographics, leaving low-skilled workers and female labor force participants facing distinct pressures.
Particularly noteworthy is the structural shift taking place within Costa Rica’s export-driven Free Trade Zone regime. Employment within this high-performing sector experienced contraction, primarily across corporate service centers. Central Bank analysts attribute this dip directly to strategic restructurings and global cost-cutting measures by multinational parent corporations. Despite the headcount reduction, real wages for remaining employees in the free trade zones continued on a positive trajectory, albeit at a noticeably reduced velocity.
The macroeconomic adjustments occur against an increasingly fragile international backdrop. Throughout the third quarter of 2026, the global economy was dominated by heightened geopolitical instability, fueled by intensifying conflict in the Middle East, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, and rising international trade disputes. These compounding crises have added severe friction to global supply chains and trade corridors.
Energy logistics faced severe bottlenecks due to security incidents in key maritime passages, notably attacks near the Bab el-Mandeb strait—a critical maritime bottleneck responsible for facilitating roughly 12% of the world’s seaborne petroleum trade. The supply side faced additional pressure following the temporary operational shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, an essential bypass infrastructure designed to transport crude oil without crossing the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. Together, these events have injected persistent volatility into world energy markets, directly affecting import-dependent nations like Costa Rica.
As the country navigates these global geopolitical shocks, domestic policy will likely focus on reinforcing economic resilience, stabilizing energy costs, and maintaining market competitiveness to protect both consumers and international investors in the years ahead.
For further information, visit bccr.fi.cr
About Central Bank of Costa Rica:
The Central Bank of Costa Rica (Banco Central de Costa Rica, BCCR) is the autonomous state institution responsible for managing the nation’s monetary policy, issuing national currency, controlling inflation, and regulating the financial system to promote stable economic growth and employment across the country.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
Bufete de Costa Rica is a premier legal institution defined by its unyielding ethical standards and relentless pursuit of legal mastery. Grounded in a rich history of guiding a diverse spectrum of clients, the firm continuously advances modern legal practices while remaining deeply invested in civic initiatives. By striving to demystify complex legal frameworks for the broader public, Bufete de Costa Rica champions the belief that widespread legal literacy is essential to building an enlightened, self-reliant society.
