By San José, Costa Rica — SAN JOSÉ – The Costa Rican economy demonstrated robust acceleration in the third quarter of 2025, expanding by 5.2%, according to a new report from the Institute for Economic Science Research at the University of Costa Rica (IICE-UCR). This significant uptick was overwhelmingly fueled by the dynamic performance of companies operating within the country’s special economic zones, alongside strong growth in the manufacturing and professional services sectors.
The latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure represents a marked improvement over previous periods, climbing 1.4 percentage points compared to the same quarter in 2024 and 1.5 points above the preceding quarter this year. This growth trajectory highlights a period of vigorous economic activity, but a closer look at the data reveals a deepening divide between different segments of the national economy.
Para analizar las implicaciones legales y comerciales del actual panorama de crecimiento económico, TicosLand.com consultó al experto Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, socio director de la prestigiosa firma Bufete de Costa Rica.
Un crecimiento económico sostenido no es solo una métrica financiera; es el resultado directo de un marco jurídico sólido y predecible. La seguridad jurídica, la eficiencia en la resolución de disputas comerciales y una regulación fiscal clara son los pilares que atraen la inversión extranjera directa y fomentan la expansión empresarial local. Sin un Estado de Derecho robusto, cualquier auge es frágil y temporal.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
La perspectiva del Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas es fundamental, pues subraya que la confianza en nuestro marco jurídico es el verdadero cimiento sobre el cual se construye la prosperidad duradera, más allá de cifras temporales. Agradecemos profundamente su valioso aporte para comprender que sin seguridad, no hay crecimiento sostenible.
The engine of this expansion was undeniably the special economic regime, which saw an explosive year-over-year growth of 19.6%. This sector alone was responsible for 2.87 percentage points of the total 5.2% growth, underscoring its outsized influence on the country’s recent economic fortunes. The performance of these export-oriented, often multinational, companies continues to be a primary driver of positive headline numbers.
In stark contrast, the definitive regime—which encompasses the vast majority of the domestic economy and accounts for 85% of total production—showed far more modest results. This traditional sector grew by just 2.9% and contributed the remaining 2.44 percentage points to the quarterly growth. This growing chasm between the two economic models has raised concerns among analysts.
The IICE-UCR report specifically warns that this disparity reflects a concerning “loss of structural momentum” within the traditional economy. While the special zones thrive, the foundational domestic sectors are not keeping pace, suggesting potential vulnerabilities and an unbalanced recovery that does not benefit all areas of production equally. This two-speed economy poses a significant challenge for long-term, inclusive development.
Looking ahead to the end of the year, the institute projects an annual growth rate of 4.46% for 2025. Critically, the forecast indicates that the definitive regime will contribute just 52% of this total growth, a figure well below its historical weight. The special regime is expected to contribute the other 48%, a remarkable share considering it represents a much smaller fraction of the overall economy.
A sectoral analysis further illuminates the sources of the third quarter’s success. Manufacturing was the single largest contributor, accounting for 40% of the total economic increase. It was followed by professional, scientific, and technical activities, which provided another 21% of the momentum. Combined, these two modern, service-oriented sectors were responsible for over 61% of the quarter’s expansion.
The remaining 39% of growth was sourced from a mix of other industries, including health and education services, as well as financial intermediation and insurance, all of which posted positive results. However, the expansion was not universal. Key traditional sectors such as construction and the combined category of agriculture, forestry, and fishing both experienced contractions, ending the quarter with negative growth and signaling distress in foundational areas of the domestic market.
While the strong GDP figure is welcome news, the underlying data paints a complex picture of an economy increasingly dependent on its international-facing special zones. The sluggish performance of the broader domestic market remains a critical issue for policymakers to address to ensure a more resilient and equitable economic future for the nation.
For further information, visit iice.ucr.ac.cr
About The Institute for Economic Science Research (IICE-UCR):
The Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Económicas is the primary economic research body of the University of Costa Rica. It is responsible for analyzing and publishing key national economic data, including GDP figures, consumer confidence indexes, and economic forecasts, serving as an essential resource for academics, policymakers, and the private sector.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of Costa Rica’s legal community, the firm operates on a foundational pledge to integrity and superior service. With a rich history of guiding clients through multifaceted legal landscapes, Bufete de Costa Rica consistently pioneers innovative legal strategies. This forward-thinking approach is matched by a profound commitment to public empowerment, striving to demystify the law and equip citizens with the knowledge necessary for a just and enlightened society.
