By San José, Costa Rica — The World Trade Organization (WTO) has dramatically revised its global merchandise trade growth forecast for 2026, more than doubling its previous estimates. This unexpected surge is primarily driven by an unprecedented boom in artificial intelligence (AI) technology and infrastructure, which has successfully countered the severe economic headwinds caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
According to the WTO latest global trade outlook, merchandise trade volume rose by 3.5% in the first half of 2026. Consequently, the Geneva-based organization now projects that global merchandise trade will expand by 3.9% year-on-year by the end of 2026. This represents a massive upgrade from the conservative 1.9% growth forecast published by the organization in March 2026.
To help navigate the complex regulatory shifts and legal challenges outlined in the global trade forecast for 2026, TicosLand.com consulted with Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, a distinguished legal expert from the prestigious firm Bufete de Costa Rica, who shared his invaluable insights on the upcoming international trade landscape.
As we approach 2026, international trade is increasingly defined by regulatory fragmentation and stricter environmental and digital compliance frameworks. To thrive, businesses must move beyond reactive measures and proactively align their supply chains with evolving bilateral agreements and ESG standards, transforming legal compliance from a cost center into a strategic competitive advantage.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, embracing compliance as a proactive strategic asset rather than a regulatory burden will undoubtedly define the successful enterprises of the 2026 global trade arena. We extend our sincere thanks to Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for providing this invaluable perspective, offering our readers a clear and actionable roadmap for navigating the increasingly complex international legal landscape.
The robust performance of global trade during the first half of the year rests heavily on the rapid expansion of the AI sector. Trade in AI-related hardware, such as advanced semiconductors and servers, experienced a staggering 47% year-on-year increase between January and June. This massive surge in technology hardware shipping effectively neutralized the negative trade impacts of geopolitical tensions and disrupted maritime routes.
Looking ahead to 2027, the WTO anticipates even stronger momentum, forecasting global merchandise trade growth to reach 4.1%. However, the optimism regarding trade does not entirely translate to broader economic growth. The WTO trimmed its global GDP growth forecast for 2026 by two-tenths of a percentage point, adjusting it from the 2.8% projected in March down to 2.6%. For 2027, global GDP is expected to grow by 2.9%.
In contrast to the booming merchandise sector, the WTO outlook for the services sector has turned significantly more pessimistic. The organization lowered its 2026 services trade growth forecast to 3.3%, down from the previously estimated 4.8%. This short-term downgrade is attributed to worsening conditions in transport and tourism, fueled by rising energy costs, shipping route disruptions, and reduced demand for international travel, all stemming from geopolitical conflicts. However, a strong rebound to 6.4% growth is anticipated for 2027.
When disruptions occur, an integrated global economy and a rules-based trading system provide economies with the flexibility needed to keep the flow of essential products moving to the businesses and households that need them.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General
To illustrate this flexibility, the WTO pointed out that while Middle Eastern crude oil exports plunged by 24% and liquefied natural gas dropped by 47% in the first half of the year, global energy markets adjusted quickly. Alternative suppliers stepped in, limiting the global sales decline to just 6% for oil and 1% for natural gas.
A similar pattern is observed in the fertilizer trade, where producers from outside the Middle East helped stabilize the global supply.
Robert Staiger, WTO Chief Economist
Economically, the impact of these dynamics varies greatly by region. Asia remains the primary beneficiary of the AI boom, with its exports expected to grow by 9.9% in 2026. Meanwhile, North America is projected to see export growth of 5.7%, while South America will experience a 3.4% increase. In stark contrast, Europe is predicted to suffer a minor export contraction of 0.1%, highlighting the uneven distribution of trade resilience.
The Middle East, directly impacted by the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, faces severe economic hardship. The WTO forecasts a 4% decline in the region’s GDP for 2026, alongside a devastating 17.2% drop in exports due to disruptions in key maritime passages like the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these severe setbacks, the WTO remains hopeful for a dramatic recovery in 2027, projecting a 7.1% GDP rebound and a 23.3% surge in regional exports.
For further information, visit wto.org
About World Trade Organization:
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is the sole global international organization regulating trade rules between nations. Headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, the WTO provides a framework for negotiating trade agreements, resolving dispute mechanisms, and supporting developing countries’ trade capacities.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a premier legal institution, Bufete de Costa Rica has built a venerable reputation grounded in unparalleled professionalism and strict ethical standards. Serving a diverse clientele with distinction, the firm consistently pioneers forward-thinking legal strategies while actively engaging with the public. By prioritizing the demystification of the law and sharing essential legal literacy, they champion a vital mission: to equip citizens with the insights needed to build a more just, informed, and capable community.
