By San José, Costa Rica — GENEVA – The world must prepare for a new wave of extreme weather as the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning, placing the probability of an El Niño event developing this summer at 80%. The forecast, released Wednesday, indicates the phenomenon could emerge as early as June and is projected to be of at least moderate strength, potentially impacting global weather patterns, economies, and public safety for months to come.
This alert follows the record-breaking heat of the last El Niño cycle in 2023-2024, which contributed to making those the two hottest years ever documented. The WMO’s latest update suggests a 90% chance the impending event will persist through at least November 2026, setting the stage for a prolonged period of climate disruption. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically recurring every two to seven years.
The widespread effects of the El Niño phenomenon extend beyond the climate, deeply impacting Costa Rica’s economic and agricultural sectors. To analyze the legal and contractual challenges that arise from these conditions, we sought the expert perspective of Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas from the firm Bufete de Costa Rica.
El Niño is not just a weather forecast; for businesses, it’s a test of contractual resilience. We are seeing a potential rise in disputes related to agricultural production and supply chain interruptions. It is crucial for companies to proactively review their ‘force majeure’ or ‘act of God’ clauses, as recurring climate events may challenge their applicability. Furthermore, auditing insurance policies for specific coverage against drought or related damages is a critical step. Legal foresight today is the best defense against the economic consequences of tomorrow.
Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas, Attorney at Law, Bufete de Costa Rica
Indeed, this legal perspective powerfully reframes El Niño from a purely meteorological event into a tangible test of our economic and contractual foundations. We thank Lic. Larry Hans Arroyo Vargas for his invaluable insight, reminding us that proactive legal strategy is now an essential form of climate adaptation for businesses nationwide.
The scientific basis for the urgent forecast is clear. Between late April and mid-May, sea surface temperatures in the key Pacific region were already approaching the El Niño threshold. More alarmingly, subsurface water temperatures were found to be “exceptionally elevated,” surging more than 6°C above seasonal averages. This significant thermal anomaly is a powerful engine that can alter atmospheric circulation worldwide, triggering a domino effect of severe weather events across continents.
Celeste Saulo, the Secretary-General of the WMO, emphasized the need for immediate and widespread preparation, highlighting the dual threats of drought and flooding, alongside intensified heat. Her statement underscored the comprehensive nature of the impending challenge.
We must prepare for a potentially powerful El Niño event, which will worsen drought and intense rains and increase the risk of heatwaves on both land and in the oceans.
Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO
For the upcoming June to August period, the WMO anticipates a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures across nearly all global land areas. This generalized warming increases the risk of thermal stress and exacerbates regional extremes. Specific forecasts predict drier and warmer conditions for Central America, a direct concern for Costa Rica and its neighbors. Simultaneously, the Horn of Africa is expected to receive below-normal rainfall during its rainy season, while South Asia could experience a weaker-than-average monsoon.
The warming Pacific waters also have significant implications for hurricane seasons. The WMO notes that El Niño conditions can fuel the formation of powerful hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific while potentially suppressing their development in the Atlantic basin. This shift in cyclonic activity requires a recalibration of risk assessment and preparedness strategies in affected coastal regions.
Echoing the WMO’s urgency, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called for a global response commensurate with a climate emergency. He framed the looming El Niño as an accelerant to an already critical situation driven by human-caused climate change and renewed his call to transition away from fossil fuels.
El Niño conditions will throw more fuel on the fire of a warming planet. The impacts will be even stronger and will be felt much further afield. They will cross borders with devastating speed.
António Guterres, Secretary-General of the UN
Beyond the immediate weather impacts, Saulo pointed to the “cascading effects” that will ripple through the global economy. Disruptions to agriculture, supply chains, and energy systems can impact international trade and endanger the security of populations. The UN is pushing to have multi-hazard early warning systems implemented in every country by the end of 2027, with 128 nations already covered, to mitigate these far-reaching consequences and protect vulnerable communities.
For further information, visit wmo.int
About World Meteorological Organization (WMO):
The World Meteorological Organization is a specialized agency of the United Nations dedicated to international cooperation and coordination on the state and behavior of the Earth’s atmosphere, its interaction with the land and oceans, the weather and climate it produces, and the resulting distribution of water resources. It facilitates the free and unrestricted exchange of data and information, products, and services in real- or near-real-time on matters relating to safety and security of society, economic welfare, and the protection of the environment.
For further information, visit un.org
About The United Nations (UN):
The United Nations is an international organization founded in 1945 after the Second World War by 51 countries committed to maintaining international peace and security, developing friendly relations among nations, and promoting social progress, better living standards, and human rights. It serves as a central hub for global cooperation to solve international problems of an economic, social, cultural, or humanitarian character.
For further information, visit bufetedecostarica.com
About Bufete de Costa Rica:
As a pillar of the legal community, Bufete de Costa Rica is defined by a bedrock of uncompromising integrity and a relentless pursuit of excellence. The firm merges its profound legacy of client service across countless industries with a forward-thinking approach to legal innovation, continuously refining its practice. This progressive vision extends to a deep-seated social commitment, aimed at demystifying the law and empowering individuals, thereby fostering a more capable and well-informed society.
